VW, BMW are favorites to gain market share in auto sector, survey says
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DETROIT (Reuters) -- Volkswagen Group and BMW are the favorites to add market share in the global auto industry over the next five years, according to a survey of top automotive executives.
Toyota also saw a big rebound in its standing, and while the combination of Hyundai and its Kia affiliate still ranked fourth, the number of executives who felt the Korean automakers will gain market share declined, a survey by consultancy KPMG shows.
VW topped the list for the third consecutive year, and the percentage of executives who believe the German automaker will gain market share globally jumped 11 points to 81 percent, according to KPMG. BMW was second at 70 percent, up 7 points from last year's survey.
"VW has been No. 1 for the last three years, but to continue and to have an 11-point increase, I was taken aback by it," said Gary Silberg, national auto industry leader for KPMG.
Toyota, which suffered a hit to its image when it recalled nearly 19 million cars globally from 2009 through early 2011, showed the biggest gain, KPMG said. It finished third at 68 percent, up from 44 percent last year.
Hyundai and Kia finished at 61 percent, down 2 points from last year and 11 points below its score in 2011, KPMG said. Nissan was fifth at 50 percent, followed by Ford Motor Co. and General Motors, each at 44 percent. In 2010, only 13 percent of those polled thought GM would increase its market share.
Fiat and its Chrysler unit ranked ninth at 37 percent, in between Daimler with 41 percent and Honda with 34 percent, KPMG said.
The brands most often predicted to lose market share included Subaru owner Fuji Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi, Mazda and Suzuki.
When including newer emerging brands, KPMG said the top 10 would include four Chinese automakers: BAIC Group at No. 3, SAIC Motor at No. 6, FAW Group at No. 7 and Geely at No. 8, as well as India's Tata at No. 10. However, their shares are much smaller, so gains would not be a surprise.
More money for new plants
KPMG also found that 64 percent of executives polled said their companies will increase investment in new plants over the next five years, up from 55 percent last year.
The executives said their companies intend to bring new plants online despite the fact that more than half say there are overcapacity risks in many mature markets.
One-quarter of those polled said the best way to solve overcapacity issues globally is consolidation and joint ventures, KPMG said.
Seventy-one percent of the executives also believe improving internal combustion engines will offer greater efficiency and lower pollution potential for the next six to 10 years than any electric vehicle technology, KPMG said. Two-thirds do not expect electric car sales to top 15 percent of global demand before 2025.
KPMG polled 200 senior global auto industry executives in November 2012 for the 14th annual survey.
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