TURIN – Chrysler Group's fortunes will be crucial in creating value for shareholders of the new automotive-focused Fiat S.p.A.
Chrysler could add between 2.75 euros and 5.40 euros (about $3.70 to $7.20) per share to Fiat's basic value, according to financial analysts polled by Automotive News Europe.
Fiat's 20 percent stake in Chrysler, currently with a zero book value, is the biggest positive element seen by analysts for the new Fiat S.p.A, which will comprise the Fiat, Alfa Romeo, Lancia, Ferrari and Maserati car brands when it starts trading on Jan. 3. Fiat's truck and tractor units will be spun off on the same day into a new unit called Fiat Industrial S.p.A.
Analysts expect Fiat's shares to be worth about 6.10 euros per share while Fiat Industrial shares will trade at 8.20 euros.
Fiat's automotive business represents 63 percent of the group's expected 2010 total revenues, but analysts give a higher value to the industrial unit's shares because the auto business will have bigger investments to fund and will have lower profit margins.
Fiat shares have traded slightly above 10 euros in recent weeks.
Here are analysts' views:
• Morgan Stanley's Stuart Pearson said Fiat's stake in Chrysler and increasing synergies and business between the two automakers could add another 5.40 euros per share to 7.30 euros value he currently envisages for the new Fiat S.p.A.
• Max Warburton at Bernstein Research factors in the value of the Chrysler stake at 2.75 euros per share -- more than half of the 5.20 euros he predicts for the new Fiat.
• Banca IMI's Monica Bosio factors in 4.50 euros per share related to Chrysler – that is 3.30 euros for the value of Fiat's stake and 1.20 euros in potential synergies – in her 7.40 euro price target for the new Fiat.