Days after Russia annexed a province of Ukraine and U.S. and European forces mobilized, hoping to prevent more regions from hoisting the Russian flag, you would expect a conference on the future of the Russian auto industry to be pessimistic.
And the speakers last week at a University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute session in Ann Arbor certainly were.
One after another, they explained why short-term Russian auto sales would decline, foreign investment is drying up and long-term prospects are dimming.
One forecaster entitled his presentation, “Slower, Lower, Weaker.” Even a Russian Federation trade representative looked dispirited on the video link from New York.
One twist: these experienced Russia experts seldom mentioned the Russia-Ukraine flare-up.
To them, this wasn’t a turning point, but just the latest symptom of Russia’s bigger problems, another example why development is so labored. Not compared with Russia's economic collapse in 1999-2000 or the 2008 global meltdown that halved Russian auto sales to less than 1.5 million units by 2009.
I’m not surprised by the latest gloom. Russia is full of contradictions. By 2005, just five years after private vehicle ownership was officially legal, auto sales were booming and you would see Moscow streets jammed with high-end imports. Foreign automakers were falling over each other to build assembly plants and recruit suppliers to follow them.
Bureaucrats drew up maps of the country’s triple hub of auto production -- St. Petersburg, Moscow and Togliatti-Samara -- and envisioned imported-parts tariffs creating a massive self-sufficient supplier network brimming with the latest technology.
Everybody speculated how soon Russia would surpass Germany as Europe’s largest car market.
But even then there were bumps in the road. Foreign suppliers setting up shop to avoid the import-part tax discovered Russian steel wasn’t usable, Russian ports were choked and logistics were erratic.
Every automaker wanted in -- European, Japanese, U.S., Korean, Indian and Chinese – so the market became fragmented. Lower-tier foreign brands struggled.
Russia’s car market recovered slowly. By 2012 it was almost back to 2008 levels at near 3 million, but sales slid in 2013. Post-Crimea, IHS Automotive is forecasting another 7 percent decline this year to about 2.6 million.
Mind you, this is in an energy-rich country with huge driving distances and a low auto density. Auto sales ought to be hot. Yet post-2008, Russia has been the weak sister of the BRIC bloc, substantially trailing the growth rates of China, India and Brazil.
What’s wrong? Lousy fundamentals and frequent crises, said speakers at the event. As a result, foreign automakers are increasingly reluctant to invest or reinvest.
The Russian legal system has contradictory and vague laws, open to broad interpretation by judges who are often corrupt and hostile to businesses, says Ekaterina Mishina, a Russian lawyer who is a University of Michigan visiting professor from Moscow’s National Research University. She fears retaliation against U.S. and EU automakers and suppliers if Western sanctions tighten further.
Mishina notes that the Russian legislature has already drafted bills to retaliate against U.S. and European businesses if the West expands sanctions. The language includes “confiscation of property, assets and bank accounts,” she adds.
“It would be unwise to ignore this,” she adds. “Russian xenophobia is becoming a risk.”
The last decade’s rush by foreign automakers to build in Russia slowed even before 2008. Foreign automakers and Tier 1 suppliers still avoid Russian steel and Tier 2 suppliers and import as much as possible.
“It’s crazy to invest in Russia,” one veteran supplier exec says. “We all have workarounds to beat the tariffs.” And suppliers minimize how much proprietary technology they transfer to the country.
“The pre-2009 belief that Russian would become the No. 1 market in Europe this decade is dissipating,” says David Teolis, senior manager of international economic and industry forecasting for General Motors.
Short-term auto sales forecasts use all kinds of factors, but over the years GM forecasters learned the best long-term projections use two primary factors: expectations for per-capita gross domestic product growth and per-capita vehicles in operation.
And since 2009, each new 10-year forecast is less upbeat, Teolis says. He sees only slow growth. That’s because Russia’s economic virtues of the go-go 2000s have flipped since 2008: slower labor productivity growth, weaker middle-class expansion, investors are risk-averse, capital is fleeing, and the ruble is overvalued. The Russian depopulation that began last decade is accelerating.
Wrap it all together and Russia’s potential as an auto market is shrinking and the risks are rising. In a world full of opportunities and limited resources, that’s a losing proposition.