Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Automotive News
  • Automobilwoche
  • Automotive News Canada
  • Automotive News China
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • Newsletters
  • Login
  • HOME
    • Latest news
    • Automakers
    • Suppliers
    • New Product
    • Environment/Emissions
    • Sales By Market
    • On The Move
    • Auto Shows
    • Munich Auto Show
    • Geneva Auto Show
    • Paris Auto Show
    • Beijing Auto Show
    • Shanghai Auto Show
  • Features
    • Long Read
    • Interview of the Month
    • Focus on Electrification
    • Focus on Technology
    • Segment Analysis
    • Cars & Concepts
    • Supplier Spotlight
    • Europe By The Numbers
  • Opinion
    • Blogs
    • Commentary
    • Guest columnists
  • Photos
    • Photo Galleries
    • Geneva Photo Gallery
    • Beijing Photo Gallery
    • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
    • Paris Photo Gallery
    • Shanghai Photo Gallery
  • Podcasts
  • Car Cutaways
  • EVENTS
    • ANE Congress
    • ANE Rising Stars
    • ANE Eurostars
  • More
    • Publishing Partners
    • Social Media
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • About Us
    • Capgemini: Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
    • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
    • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
    • Capgemini: The circular economy is spurring new thinking on EV batteries
    • Capgemini: Toyota and Capgemini leaders on how OEMs can handle industry changes and succeed
    • HEXAGON: Plugging into data is the only way to make winning EVs
    • TUV Rheinland: Ideas, services and certifications for smart mobility
    • TUV Rheinland: Testing of automated and autonomous vehicles on test tracks
    • Toyota Europe
    • UFI Filters
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Automotive News Europe
June 30, 2016 01:00 AM

Diesels will have just 9% of Europe market by 2030, study says

Luca Ciferri
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    Battery-electric vehicles are forecast to have a 20% share of the European market by 2030, according to a new study.

    TURIN -- Diesel engines will account for 9 percent of new-car sales in Europe by 2030 – down from about 50 percent today – as automaker are forced to rely on electrified powertrains to meet tougher emissions rules, according to a study by AlixPartners.

    This shift will cause a radical overhaul of automakers' powertrain manufacturing footprint in the region.

    “Electrification [of the powertrain] has to come to Europe to meet tougher emission standards and the diesel is going to pay the highest toll,” AlixPartners Vice Chairman Stefano Aversa told Automotive News Europe. “This will cause huge challenges for automakers and suppliers because they will need to change their powertrain manufacturing infrastructure.”

    AlixPartners expects that by 2022 the number of European plants manufacturing diesel and gasoline models will decrease to 55 from 62 last year. At the same time, plants that builds electric motors and electrified models will grow to 40 by 2022 from 26 now.

    “The financial implications of this manufacturing overhaul are significant but not prohibitive,” said Giacomo Mori, AlixPartners managing director.

    Automakers should be able to keep their buildings and retain some conveyors when retooling their plants to make electric motors instead of internal combustion engines, which will keep investment costs down, AlixPartners estimates.

    Mori said that, on average, a plant that makes 400,000 engines a year costs 500 million euros to build. A plant that makes the same number of electric motors costs about 50 million to construct and requires about one-tenth of the space needed for an engine plant, which results in significantly lower labor costs.

    The new mix

    Today, diesels account for about half of the European new-car sales and gasoline-powered vehicles control the other half with alternatives powertrains accounting for just a fraction. That is expected to change dramatically in 2030

    28% -- Gasoline hybrids

    25% -- Gasoline

    20% -- Battery-electric vehicles

    18% -- Gasoline plug-in hybrids

    9% -- Diesel

    Source: AlixPartners

    Diesel's demise

    The consulting firm expects stricter European emission standards to progressively increase the costs of diesels engines, which will require expensive after-treatment systems to meet new rules. This will increase the retail price of diesel models, which are less expensive to purchase than most rival models today. It also will make the total cost of ownership of diesels less competitive, whereas today a diesel becomes less expensive to run than its rivals after as little as 30,000km. At the same time, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will gain in competiveness because the cost of their batteries will decrease with their range and performance will increase.

    Aversa cited several other factors that are expected to boost the shift toward electrified powertrains in Europe:

    The growing appreciation by customers of the brisk acceleration that EVs provide will make that feature more important than top-end speeds that are seldom if ever reached.

    EVs that are homologated to travel 500km on a single charge will achieve a real range of 300km, which is enough to alleviate range anxiety in most customers.

    Software improvements will make it possible to significantly increase the range of an EV during its life cycle, which is something automaker could not do with internal combustion engines.

    Infrastructure challenge

    AlixPartners estimates that it will cost a combined 30 billion euros by 2030 to develop an adequate recharging infrastructure in four European big cities: London, Paris, Frankfurt and Milan. So far, just 5 percent of that total has been committed.

    Paris is expected to require the largest investment, 11.6 billion euros, followed by London (10.2 million), Milan (5.1 billion) and Frankfurt (3.5 billion).

    “Automakers are setting a daunting roadmap for electrification in Europe, but without an adequate infrastructure development, their efforts could be pointless,” Aversa said. “Infrastructure development is the big challenge within the electrification challenge.”

    RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
    2022 Eurostar winner Enrico Salvatori of Qualcomm
    Recommended for You
    Enrico Salvatori
    2022 Eurostar winner Enrico Salvatori of Qualcomm
    Christian Dahlheim
    2022 Eurostar winner Christian Dahlheim of VW Financial Services
    Milan Nedeljkovic
    2022 Eurostar winner Milan Nedeljkovic of BMW
    Capgemini Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
    Sponsored Content: Capgemini Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
    Sign up for free newsletters
    EMAIL ADDRESS

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Please enter your email address.

    Please verify captcha.

    Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up and get the best of Automotive News Europe delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    Get 24/7 access to in-depth, authoritative coverage of the auto industry from a global team of reporters and editors covering the news that’s vital to your business.

    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    Connect with Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram

    Founded in 1996, Automotive News Europe is the preferred information source for decision-makers and opinion leaders operating in Europe.

    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit MI  48207-2997
    Tel: +1 877-812-1584

    Email Us

    ISSN 2643-6590 (print)
    ISSN 2643-6604 (online)

     

    Resources
    • About us
    • Contact Us
    • Advertise with us
    • Advertise with Us
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Awards
    • Rising Stars
    • Eurostars
    • Leading Women
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Automotive News Europe
    Copyright © 1996-2023. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • HOME
      • Latest news
      • Automakers
      • Suppliers
      • New Product
      • Environment/Emissions
      • Sales By Market
      • On The Move
      • Auto Shows
        • Munich Auto Show
        • Geneva Auto Show
        • Paris Auto Show
        • Beijing Auto Show
        • Shanghai Auto Show
    • Features
      • Long Read
      • Interview of the Month
      • Focus on Electrification
      • Focus on Technology
      • Segment Analysis
      • Cars & Concepts
      • Supplier Spotlight
      • Europe By The Numbers
    • Opinion
      • Blogs
      • Commentary
      • Guest columnists
    • Photos
      • Photo Galleries
      • Geneva Photo Gallery
      • Beijing Photo Gallery
      • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
      • Paris Photo Gallery
      • Shanghai Photo Gallery
    • Podcasts
    • Car Cutaways
    • EVENTS
      • ANE Congress
      • ANE Rising Stars
      • ANE Eurostars
    • More
      • Publishing Partners
        • Capgemini: Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
        • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
        • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
        • Capgemini: The circular economy is spurring new thinking on EV batteries
        • Capgemini: Toyota and Capgemini leaders on how OEMs can handle industry changes and succeed
        • HEXAGON: Plugging into data is the only way to make winning EVs
        • TUV Rheinland: Ideas, services and certifications for smart mobility
        • TUV Rheinland: Testing of automated and autonomous vehicles on test tracks
        • Toyota Europe
        • UFI Filters
      • Social Media
        • Facebook
        • Instagram
        • LinkedIn
        • Twitter
      • Contact Us
      • Media Kit
      • About Us