The study expects North American production capacity will increase by 3 million units through 2023, and nearly half of that growth will come in Mexico.
It says production capacity investment in Mexico will rise 47 percent. Investment in the U.S. will increase 12 percent, while Canada investment will fall 4 percent over that same stretch of time.
The findings come despite recent announcements by Ford, GM, FCA, Hyundai and others about investing in the U.S., and in some cases relocating production back to the U.S.
“There have been several recent announcements of investment in U.S. operations or the cancelations of investment in Mexico by OEMs,” the study said. “This appears to be the direct result of pressure from Trump holding to his campaign promise of penalizing companies for manufacturing outside the U.S. However, many of these decisions were already planned or were altered due to other factors, such as lower demand for small vehicles or shifting higher margin or complex vehicles to the US, and not solely the result of the pressure.”