Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Automotive News
  • Automobilwoche
  • Automotive News Canada
  • Automotive News China
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • Newsletters
  • Login
  • HOME
    • Latest news
    • Automakers
    • Suppliers
    • New Product
    • Environment/Emissions
    • Sales By Market
    • On The Move
    • Auto Shows
    • Munich Auto Show
    • Geneva Auto Show
    • Paris Auto Show
    • Beijing Auto Show
    • Shanghai Auto Show
  • Features
    • Long Read
    • Interview of the Month
    • Focus on Electrification
    • Focus on Technology
    • Segment Analysis
    • Cars & Concepts
    • Supplier Spotlight
    • Europe By The Numbers
  • Opinion
    • Blogs
    • Commentary
    • Guest columnists
  • Photos
    • Photo Galleries
    • Geneva Photo Gallery
    • Beijing Photo Gallery
    • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
    • Paris Photo Gallery
    • Shanghai Photo Gallery
  • Podcasts
  • Car Cutaways
  • EVENTS
    • ANE Congress
    • ANE Rising Stars
    • ANE Eurostars
  • More
    • Publishing Partners
    • Social Media
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • About Us
    • Capgemini: Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
    • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
    • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
    • Capgemini: The circular economy is spurring new thinking on EV batteries
    • Capgemini: Toyota and Capgemini leaders on how OEMs can handle industry changes and succeed
    • HEXAGON: Plugging into data is the only way to make winning EVs
    • TUV Rheinland: Ideas, services and certifications for smart mobility
    • TUV Rheinland: Testing of automated and autonomous vehicles on test tracks
    • Toyota Europe
    • UFI Filters
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Automotive News Europe
September 26, 2017 01:00 AM

VW, FCA, others could face big fines for missing EU emissions targets

Peter Sigal
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    VW could face the highest fine - 1.36 billion euros - for missing its CO2 emissions target. Pictured are Greenpeace protestors at the automaker's Wolfsburg headquarters.
    CO2 penalties

    Fines automakers could face in 2021 (in euros)

    VW Group : 1.36 billion

    FCA: 950 million

    PSA/Opel: 786.7 million

    BMW: 430 million

    Ford: 307.1 million

    Hyundai-Kia: 283.1 million

    Daimler: 126.2 million

    Sources: PA Consulting; JATO sales data

    PARIS -- Most major automakers are likely to fall short of meeting the European Union's upcoming carbon dioxide emissions goal, and could face big fines as a result, a consultants' report said.

    PA Consulting ranked automakers according to their progress in meeting the EU's target to reduce CO2 emissions of new cars sold in Europe to a fleet average of 95 grams per km in 2021 from 118g/km last year.

    Just three of 11 automakers -- Volvo, Toyota and Renault-Nissan -- are in position to reach that goal, it found. Automakers who fall short will face fines of 95 euros per gram over the limit for each vehicle.

    Volkswagen Group, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, PSA, BMW and Ford are among automakers who could be fined for falling short of their targets (see table below).

    "Car manufacturers are facing nothing less than the reinvention of their industry," PA Consulting's report said, citing increased anti-pollution regulations, disruptive technologies such as autonomous driving, and political pressure following the VW Group diesel-cheating scandal.

    In response, carmakers are rolling out plans to increase sales of hybrid and electric vehicles, which are "beginning have a small impact on sales," the consultancy said.

    Nonetheless, "very few are likely to be able to change the makeup of their fleets fast enough to meet the immediate challenge of the 2021 EU CO2 emission reduction targets, and avoid the significant fines for missing them," PA Consulting said.

    Companies will do "everything humanly possible to avoid paying the fines," said Thomas Goettle, the author of the report and lead automotive analyst at PA Consulting. "It's on the top of the agenda at the OEMs," he said.

    "The huge issue," he added, "which you cannot overestimate, is the damage to your brand" by missing the targets in the wake of the VW scandal.

    • Download PA CO2 Emissions Report 2017, above right.

    As the 2021 standard approaches, momentum toward reaching it appears to have slowed. The EU reported that last year's CO2 reduction to 118g/km was the smallest annual gains in a decade, falling 1.4g/km. The EU is seeking to reduce CO2 emissions which are blamed for contributing to climate change. It says cars are responsible for around 12 percent of total CO2 emissions in Europe.

    Diesel decline

    Goettle said one reason is that the VW diesel-emissions scandal, first revealed in 2015, threw automakers' plans into disarray. Before, the assumption was that diesel would continue to play an important role in meeting standards. However, the share of diesel sales in Europe has fallen to below 50 percent, a trend that is likely to continue as cities including London and Paris take steps to ban diesels. In the longer term, France, Britain and Norway are among European countries who have said they will end sales of all internal-combustion engines in the next few decades.

     "It came out of the blue," Goettle said of the VW cheating revelations. "During the scandal, the OEMs were not sure how it was going to play out, and so they did a little bit in various different powertrains, but not a whole lot, just to make sure they are not losing too much time."

    Still, he said, the fallout from the scandal has made it clear that electrification is the best way to meet tightening emissions standards. "At the Frankfurt show this year, there were a lot of people more positive about electric cars," he said. "The future is much clearer now, much more focused. Everyone is getting on the boat now."

    Apart from full battery electric vehicles, which still make up a tiny fraction of sales, the most sensible solution is to add 48-volt mild hybrid systems to gasoline engines, Goettle said. VW, Volvo, PSA and Daimler plan to introduce the technology across their lineup.

    Weight goals

    Within the 95g/km standard, each of the 11 major producers has an individual target based on the average weight of new vehicles registered, ranging from 91.1g/km for Fiat-Chrysler to 103.5 for Volvo. Jaguar-Land Rover's target of 130g/km is higher because it sells fewer than 300,000 vehicles a year in Europe; PA consulting says it will meet that standard.

    Several companies have been penalized for missing targets in recent years, an EU spokeswoman said. In 2013, Ferrari was fined 1 million euros and AvtoVAZ 20,000 euros for exceeding their CO2 targets, she said. Ferrari and Aston-Martin were fined for exceeding emissions in 2015.

    The year's biggest gainer was Volvo, which moved up six places from last year's ranking and is forecast to improve CO2 levels to 73g/km by 2021 from 119 in 2016.

    "Volvo, from our point of view, is the biggest positive,” said Thomas Goettle, automotive lead analyst at PA Consulting in Germany. Volvo's announcement that it would offer some kind of electric powertrain on all models after 2019 means that it is likely to have few problems meeting its target of 103.5g/km, he said.

    Opel challenge

    Last year's leader, PSA Group, slipped to fifth place and is forecast to miss its target by 3g/km. Two factors contributed to that, Goettle said: a decision to discontinue its hybrid diesel program and its purchase of GM Europe's Opel and Vauxhall brands, with their heavier and less-efficient vehicles.

    "What they need to do right now is to compare the different engine portfolios between Opel and PSA and cut out any inefficient engines," he said. "Going into the future, you don't need two different engine development platforms."

    Toyota and Renault-Nissan remained in second and third places, respectively. Toyota should easily meet its CO2 goal of 94.3g/km from 105.5g/km in 2016 — now the lowest in Europe — through its strategy of focusing on hybrid powertrains. The Renault-Nissan alliance, which has invested billions in EV technology in the last decade and has the two best-selling electric vehicles in Europe with the Renault Zoe and Nissan Leaf, is also well positioned, he said.

    Goettle said that while Toyota won't have difficulty meeting the 2021 target, it may need to reassess its long-term zero emissions bet on costly fuel cell vehicles over battery-electric powertrains. "Hybrid is probably not going to be enough to meet the CO2 targets in 2025," he said. "They need to think about adding electric cars."

    Among other carmakers, the report found:

    • Ford, in sixth place, will "struggle" to meet its target, with almost no electric vehicles in its lineup.
    • VW Group climbed to seventh from ninth, and has announced a major investment into electric vehicles. Offsetting that in the short term will be a push to sell profitable SUV and crossover models, which are heavier and less efficient, Goettle said.
    • Fiat-Chrysler, in eighth place, "is likely to miss its targets by the highest margin of all the carmakers," about 10g/km, the report said, citing "a lack of alternative powertrain options and strategy."
    • Daimler sits in ninth place, but is "moving fast," announcing its EQ line of electric vehicles and positioning Smart as an electric brand.
    • BMW, in 10th, was an early EV mover with the i subbrand, but sales numbers "have not been sufficient to significantly decrease CO2 fleet emissions," the report found.
    CA112206926.PDF

    PA CO2 Emissions Report 2017

    CA112206926.PDF >
    RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
    2022 Eurostar winner Enrico Salvatori of Qualcomm
    Recommended for You
    Enrico Salvatori
    2022 Eurostar winner Enrico Salvatori of Qualcomm
    Christian Dahlheim
    2022 Eurostar winner Christian Dahlheim of VW Financial Services
    Milan Nedeljkovic
    2022 Eurostar winner Milan Nedeljkovic of BMW
    Capgemini Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
    Sponsored Content: Capgemini Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
    Sign up for free newsletters
    EMAIL ADDRESS

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Please enter your email address.

    Please verify captcha.

    Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up and get the best of Automotive News Europe delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    Get 24/7 access to in-depth, authoritative coverage of the auto industry from a global team of reporters and editors covering the news that’s vital to your business.

    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    Connect with Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram

    Founded in 1996, Automotive News Europe is the preferred information source for decision-makers and opinion leaders operating in Europe.

    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit MI  48207-2997
    Tel: +1 877-812-1584

    Email Us

    ISSN 2643-6590 (print)
    ISSN 2643-6604 (online)

     

    Resources
    • About us
    • Contact Us
    • Advertise with us
    • Advertise with Us
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Awards
    • Rising Stars
    • Eurostars
    • Leading Women
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Automotive News Europe
    Copyright © 1996-2023. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • HOME
      • Latest news
      • Automakers
      • Suppliers
      • New Product
      • Environment/Emissions
      • Sales By Market
      • On The Move
      • Auto Shows
        • Munich Auto Show
        • Geneva Auto Show
        • Paris Auto Show
        • Beijing Auto Show
        • Shanghai Auto Show
    • Features
      • Long Read
      • Interview of the Month
      • Focus on Electrification
      • Focus on Technology
      • Segment Analysis
      • Cars & Concepts
      • Supplier Spotlight
      • Europe By The Numbers
    • Opinion
      • Blogs
      • Commentary
      • Guest columnists
    • Photos
      • Photo Galleries
      • Geneva Photo Gallery
      • Beijing Photo Gallery
      • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
      • Paris Photo Gallery
      • Shanghai Photo Gallery
    • Podcasts
    • Car Cutaways
    • EVENTS
      • ANE Congress
      • ANE Rising Stars
      • ANE Eurostars
    • More
      • Publishing Partners
        • Capgemini: Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
        • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
        • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
        • Capgemini: The circular economy is spurring new thinking on EV batteries
        • Capgemini: Toyota and Capgemini leaders on how OEMs can handle industry changes and succeed
        • HEXAGON: Plugging into data is the only way to make winning EVs
        • TUV Rheinland: Ideas, services and certifications for smart mobility
        • TUV Rheinland: Testing of automated and autonomous vehicles on test tracks
        • Toyota Europe
        • UFI Filters
      • Social Media
        • Facebook
        • Instagram
        • LinkedIn
        • Twitter
      • Contact Us
      • Media Kit
      • About Us