Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Automotive News
  • Automobilwoche
  • Automotive News Canada
  • Automotive News China
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • Newsletters
  • Login
  • HOME
    • Latest news
    • Automakers
    • Suppliers
    • New Product
    • Environment/Emissions
    • Sales By Market
    • On The Move
    • Auto Shows
    • Russia's new-car sales fall 2% in December
      FCA-PSA merger adds uncertainty to Peugeot's return to U.S., brand chief says
      BMW aims to double EV sales this year
      EX-VW CEO Winterkorn avoids market manipulation trial but faces tougher test
    • BMW aims to double EV sales this year
      EX-VW CEO Winterkorn avoids market manipulation trial but faces tougher test
      Ford, Audi, Daimler reduce German output on chip supply shortages
      VW Group says 2020 sales slide was slowed by higher EV demand
    • Ford, Audi, Daimler reduce German output on chip supply shortages
      Airline chief to head Swedish bearings maker SKF
      Nvidia CEO says software will soon define the car, drive profit
      LG Magna-MAIN_i.jpg
      At CES, Magna touts new deal with LG
    • Renault to follow Peugeot, VW in seeking higher transaction prices
      Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs
      view gallery
      8 photos
      Dacia Bigster
      view gallery
      8 photos
      Renault 5 concept
    • Mercedes badge_1.jpg
      Mercedes meets European CO2 target with late-year surge in EV sales
      EV-only future looks closer than ever in Europe
      VW to link bonuses to social targets
      New EU 'green-washing' rules will force automakers to be transparent
    • Russia's new-car sales fall 2% in December
      FCA-PSA merger adds uncertainty to Peugeot's return to U.S., brand chief says
      Benz plant in Beijing.jpg
      Mercedes, Audi, BMW post record China deliveries
      LUXESALES-MAIN_i.jpg
      BMW defends U.S. luxury crown
    • Airline chief to head Swedish bearings maker SKF
      Renault names former Google exec to run Alpine brand
      Bentley's top designer, Sielaff, to leave; may join Geely
      RTX326BL.jpg
      LeddarTech names former Opel CEO Carl-Peter Forster to board
    • Geneva Auto Show
    • Frankfurt Auto Show
    • Paris Auto Show
    • Beijing Auto Show
    • Shanghai Auto Show
  • Features
    • Long Read
    • Interview of the Month
    • Supplier Spotlight
    • Focus on Electrification
    • Latest Launches
    • Analyst's View
    • Segment Analysis
    • Europe By The Numbers
    • EV-only future looks closer than ever in Europe
      European car retailing poised for shake-up as 'agency' model gains support
      How Europe will become an EV battery powerhouse
      VW, Ford stumbles force rethink of how to best use social media
    • Nvidia CEO says software will soon define the car, drive profit
      Tavares: Keeping PSA, FCA merger on track an 'incredible' achievement
      Renault CEO outlines ambitious revival plan
      Why Rolls-Royce boss expects to be profitable despite COVID
    • Veoneer boss expects to reach key milestone this quarter
      How Faurecia aims to become a hydrogen leader
      How Yanfeng gave the car interior a brain
      FCA suppliers in Europe at risk from switch to PSA platform, experts say
    • Chinese EV maker Xpeng outlines Europe rollout plan
      Arrival Van.jpg
      How Arrival intends to disrupt the delivery van market
      Polestar 2's performance, convenience offset range anxiety
      Nio ET7-MAIN.jpg
      Nio debuts first electric sedan
    • BENTAYGAHYBRID-MAIN_i.jpg
      Bentley freshens Bentayga Hybrid
      BMW 4-Series Coupe breaks free from sedan sibling
      Hyundai counts on new Tucson to become its Europe top-seller
      Dacia turns to familiar playbook for all-new Sandero
    • Pandemic forces automakers to focus on brand, conserve cash
      Why prospects for dealer mergers have improved
      Dacia-level price discipline needed to end margin slump in Europe, expert says
      How infotainment systems are taking over the vehicle cockpit
    • Wagons hold market share, but costly EV shift looms
      Electrification gains speed in Europe's key compact segment
      Hybrids beat the market; sales expected to top 1 million in 2022
      Plug-in hybrids set for rapid rise but trouble looms
    • Russia's new-car sales fall 2% in December
      Europe sales by model, Nov. and 11 months: Audi A3, Jeep Compass rise; Toyota Yaris surprises
      Top 10 sellers by market, 11 months: Skoda a top 5-seller in 13 countries
      Russia's new-car sales rise for second straight month
  • Opinion
    • Blogs
    • Commentary
    • Guest columnists
    • Polestar 2's performance, convenience offset range anxiety
      Bosch, Continental battle to supply the brain of the connected car
      Why the ID5 is VW's true rival to the Tesla Model Y
      Volvo, Daimler CEOs praised for leading push to computerize cars
    • Understanding the impact of design on marketing, brand and user experience
      Ex-Aston Martin CEO Palmer calls on UK to intensify battery commitment
      Why Apple must target the $230B luxury car market
      Apple car: Who will build it? Magna Steyr possible candidate
  • Photos
    • Photo Galleries
    • Geneva Photo Gallery
    • Beijing Photo Gallery
    • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
    • Paris Photo Gallery
    • Shanghai Photo Gallery
    • view gallery
      8 photos
      Dacia Bigster
      view gallery
      8 photos
      Renault 5 concept
      view gallery
      15 photos
      Toyota Mirai 2021
      view gallery
      10 photos
      Fiat Tipo Cross
    • koenigsegg-gemera-front-quarter-passenger-01.jpg
      view gallery
      14 photos
      Koenigsegg Gemera
      view gallery
      21 photos
      Fiat New 500
      view gallery
      11 photos
      Aston Martin V12 Speedster
      view gallery
      13 photos
      Audi A3 Sportback 2020
    • At the Beijing show, sales rebound and EV boom mix with murky outlook
      3BEIJING-MAIN_i.jpg
      Beijing show to highlight competition for local EV makers
      Beijing auto show delayed due to coronavirus
      Maserati will unveil Ghibli hybrid at Beijing show
    • view gallery
      11 photos
      Mercedes-Benz Vision EQS
      view gallery
      11 photos
      Renault Captur
      view gallery
      5 photos
      Mercedes-Benz AMG GLB 53
      view gallery
      10 photos
      Mercedes-AMG GLE 53 Coupe
    • view gallery
      8 photos
      VinFast Lux SA2.0 SUV
      view gallery
      8 photos
      VinFast Lux A2.0 sedan
      view gallery
      7 photos
      Toyota Corolla station wagon
      view gallery
      9 photos
      Seat Tarraco
    • view gallery
      4 photos
      Nio ET Preview
      view gallery
      7 photos
      Infiniti Qs Inspiration concept
      view gallery
      5 photos
      BMW 3-series LWB
      view gallery
      9 photos
      Mini Clubman
  • Maps
    • E-Car & Component Map of Europe
    • Powertrain Map of Europe
    • Assembly Plant Map of Europe
  • Car Cutaways
  • EVENTS
    • ANE Congress Conversations
    • ANE Shift
    • ANE Rising Stars
    • ANE Eurostars
    • ANE Leading Women
    • Watch Again
      • July 9: EU green deal in the COVID-19 new normal
      • July 16: Assisted or Autonomous Driving
      • July 23: Challenges in Electrification
      • July 30: The Road Ahead for Europe
    • Meet the 2020 winners
    • Watch the 2020 Rising Stars awards again
  • More
    • Publishing Partners
    • Social Media
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • About Us
    • Toyota Europe
    • UFI Filters
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Automakers
November 06, 2020 01:00 AM

New COVID-19 lockdowns imperil European sales recovery

Peter Sigal
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    Reuters

    An employee wearing safety equipment at a Mercedes dealership in Brussels earlier this year.

    PARIS -- The second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe will dash hopes for a sales recovery toward the end of the year, analysts say.

    Showrooms will be closed for at least the month of November in France and England, while curfews and movement restrictions in markets such as Germany, Italy and Spain are cutting into dealers' foot traffic. 

    Car buyers may also put off purchases until 2021 amid renewed economic worries. 

    The effect of rising case numbers has already appeared in October sales, which fell in the EU’s five largest markets -- Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain -- after rebounding over the summer months. 

    "While we are still assessing some of the details, lost sales [in Western Europe] could amount to 300,000 to 400,000 in the final couple of months" of 2020, said LMC Automotive analyst Jonathon Poskitt. He noted that a second wave and renewed lockdowns were "always a serious threat."

    LMC Automotive's latest forecast calls for full-year Western European sales of 10.58 million units, a 26 percent decrease from the 14.3 million vehicles sold in 2019. That is a downward revision from early October, when LMC forecast sales of 10.92 million units in the region, a decrease of 24 percent from last year.

    "There are certainly reasons to be concerned with the near-term health of the car market in light of this," Poskitt said in an email, "both directly through the closing of showrooms (and therefore restricting this tried-and-trusted channel of sales), and indirectly through the economic consequences of further lockdowns, risks to jobs and the hit to consumer confidence."

    The consequences in France could be severe, said Lorraine Morard of IHS Markit in Paris. "We foresee a decline of about 67 percent" in November, she said, adding the decline would be less than in April, when French sales fell by 89 percent, because dealers are better prepared.

    Sales totals will be boosted somewhat by online purchases, deliveries of vehicles already ordered and orders for commercial vehicles, she said. 

    Citing a government source, Reuters reported Friday that new car orders had fallen 70 percent to 90 percent since the lockdown was imposed. The government is also considering extending enhanced financial supports for car buyers until July rather than ending on Dec. 31, Reuters said.

    The pain could extend well beyond November. While the French government has not yet decided whether to prolong a national lockdown past Dec. 1, Morard said December sales would most likely decline by 25 percent. 

    "People will remain worried and could postpone their purchases onto 2021 or go for used cars instead," she said in an email. "December will definitely see some postponed purchases from November, but this will not be enough to see growth for the last month of 2020."

    In light of the second wave of COVID-19, Poskitt said LMC was taking a pessimistic view of 2021.

    "While it will be difficult to predict the exact timing and nature of further restrictions, we have lowered the forecast in the first half of the year to acknowledge this increasing likelihood," he wrote. 

    LMC is now predicting an 18 percent improvement in 2021, to 12.5 million units. That figure is still 13 percent below 2019's total.

    Online purchases and "click and collect" deliveries, allowed in England and France, could offset some lost sales, however, automakers and analysts say.

    "While the continuation of click and collect and delivery services is welcome, and should help prevent a return to the sales wipeout experienced in the spring, it cannot offset the loss of custom from the closure of showrooms themselves, given the unique nature of the car purchase process," the SMMT UK lobbying group said in statement this week.

    "What is not in doubt, however, is that the entire industry now faces an even tougher end to the year as businesses desperately try to manage resources, stock, production and cashflow in the penultimate month before the inevitable upheaval of Brexit," SMMT CEO Mike Hawes said in the statement.

    Bloomberg

    A Renault dealership in June. "Our objective is now to aim to deliver 100 percent of our orders," said Ivan Segal, head of Renault sales in France.

    Focus on digital sales and deliveries

    Automakers expressed varying degrees of worry. BMW issued a warning on Wednesday, even as the automaker confirmed a full-year profit.

    "The pandemic is now clearly regaining momentum," BMW said Wednesday in a statement. If it worsens and drags down the global economy, "the risk exposure could be considerable, particularly on the demand side."

    Bjorn Anwall, Volvo’s sales boss for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said the automaker was counting on digital sales and staying in contact with customers by telephone to minimize the impact on sales. 

    "Yes, there is the risk that we will face more partial closure in the coming months, but we are prepared to do handle this in a safe way while keeping the business open, if not physically open then digitally open," Anwall told Automotive News Europe.

    Renault's sales director for France, Ivan Segal, said his network was focused on delivering vehicles ordered before the most recent lockdown, which started on Friday.

    "Our objective is now to aim to deliver 100 percent of our orders, which will make it possible to avoid the cash flow problems suffered by the network during last spring,” Segal said in an interview with the French website JournalAuto.com. 

    Like Volvo, Renault will do it all it can to stay in contact with sales leads and customers during confinement.

    "We will use all the distancing tools at our disposal to respond to prospects, all digital means for processing leads, and we will ensure that each of the leads sent to the network is processed immediately," Segal said.

    Matt Harrison, executive vice president of sales at Toyota Europe, told Automotive News Europe that Toyota and Lexus had an order bank of about 190,000 vehicles, more than two months of sales. "We would like to fulfill those orders as best we can," he said. 

    "The situation is very fast changing at the moment," he said added. Harrison said that about 30 percent of Toyota's European markets were in a "restricted capability," meaning that buyers could not walk into a showroom, test drive a car or pick it up after purchase.

    In the UK, Harrison said, the impact of restrictions in the fourth quarter could be about 10,000 vehicles in absolute volume terms.

    Douglas A. Bolduc and Luca Ciferri contributed

    RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
    FCA-PSA merger adds uncertainty to Peugeot's return to U.S., brand chief says
    Recommended for You
    FCA-PSA merger adds uncertainty to Peugeot's return to U.S., brand chief says
    FCA-PSA merger adds uncertainty to Peugeot's return to U.S., brand chief says
    BMW aims to double EV sales this year
    BMW aims to double EV sales this year
    EX-VW CEO Winterkorn avoids market manipulation trial but faces tougher test
    EX-VW CEO Winterkorn avoids market manipulation trial but faces tougher test
    Sign up for free newsletters
    EMAIL ADDRESS

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Please enter your email address.

    Please verify captcha.

    Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up and get the best of Automotive News Europe delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    Get 24/7 access to in-depth, authoritative coverage of the auto industry from a global team of reporters and editors covering the news that’s vital to your business.

    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    Connect with Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram

    Founded in 1996, Automotive News Europe is the preferred information source for decision-makers and opinion leaders operating in Europe.

    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit MI  48207-2997
    Tel: +1 877-812-1584

    Email Us

    ISSN 2643-6590 (print)
    ISSN 2643-6604 (online)

     

    Resources
    • About us
    • Contact Us
    • 2020 Media Kit
    • Advertise with Us
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Awards
    • Rising Stars
    • Eurostars
    • Leading Women
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Automotive News Europe
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • HOME
      • Latest news
      • Automakers
      • Suppliers
      • New Product
      • Environment/Emissions
      • Sales By Market
      • On The Move
      • Auto Shows
        • Geneva Auto Show
        • Frankfurt Auto Show
        • Paris Auto Show
        • Beijing Auto Show
        • Shanghai Auto Show
    • Features
      • Long Read
      • Interview of the Month
      • Supplier Spotlight
      • Focus on Electrification
      • Latest Launches
      • Analyst's View
      • Segment Analysis
      • Europe By The Numbers
    • Opinion
      • Blogs
      • Commentary
      • Guest columnists
    • Photos
      • Photo Galleries
      • Geneva Photo Gallery
      • Beijing Photo Gallery
      • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
      • Paris Photo Gallery
      • Shanghai Photo Gallery
    • Maps
      • E-Car & Component Map of Europe
      • Powertrain Map of Europe
      • Assembly Plant Map of Europe
    • Car Cutaways
    • EVENTS
      • ANE Congress Conversations
        • Watch Again
          • July 9: EU green deal in the COVID-19 new normal
          • July 16: Assisted or Autonomous Driving
          • July 23: Challenges in Electrification
          • July 30: The Road Ahead for Europe
      • ANE Shift
      • ANE Rising Stars
        • Meet the 2020 winners
        • Watch the 2020 Rising Stars awards again
      • ANE Eurostars
      • ANE Leading Women
    • More
      • Publishing Partners
        • Toyota Europe
        • UFI Filters
      • Social Media
        • Facebook
        • Instagram
        • LinkedIn
        • Twitter
      • Contact Us
      • Media Kit
      • About Us