Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Automotive News
  • Automobilwoche
  • Automotive News Canada
  • Automotive News China
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • Newsletters
  • Login
  • HOME
    • Latest news
    • Automakers
    • Suppliers
    • New Product
    • Environment/Emissions
    • Sales By Market
    • On The Move
    • Auto Shows
    • Aston Martin boss Stroll has big plans for F1 team, brand
      VW brand will accelerate electric vehicle shift
      Brembo-MAIN.jpg
      Brembo quarterly net profit up 18% despite COVID hit
      Stellantis to distribute its stake in Faurecia to shareholders
    • VW brand will accelerate electric vehicle shift
      Spain will use EU funds for EV battery plant with VW's Seat, Iberdrola
      Porsche adds Taycan electric wagon, stepping up Tesla challenge
      Stellantis will increase pace of EV launches in Europe, U.S.
    • Opel Mokka 2020
      Stellantis battery JV seeks contracts with other automakers
      Sogefi appoints new CEO, virus weighs on 2020 results
      3BIDEN-MAIN_i.jpg
      Biden to press for $37 billion to boost chip output amid shortage
      Continental grille web.jpg
      Continental invests in object recognition startup
    • 6DEFENDER-MAIN_i.jpg
      Bigger Land Rover Defender confirmed by JLR
      Porsche adds Taycan electric wagon, stepping up Tesla challenge
      Toyota will stay in Europe's minicar segment while others electrify or leave
      Mercedes preps debut of EQE EV, a Tesla Model S rival
    • Valeo joins Bosch, GM, others in pledge for carbon neutrality
      GMEVBarra-MAIN_i.jpg
      GM aims to stop selling gasoline vehicles by 2035 in carbon neutrality pledge
      VW will appeal $20M Spanish diesel compensation ruling
      Death of diesel looms as automakers accelerate to electric future
    • UK sales plunge 36% in worst February since 1959
      Spain's February sales fell 38% in 'perfect storm'
      German sales plunge 19% in worst February since 2007
      Italy sales dropped 12% in February but incentives boosted demand from private buyers
    • Toyota names new CEO for Europe
      Audi appoints former Porsche exec as finance chief
      Sogefi appoints new CEO, virus weighs on 2020 results
      Audi's new chief engineer will accelerate EV push
    • Geneva Auto Show
    • Frankfurt Auto Show
    • Paris Auto Show
    • Beijing Auto Show
    • Shanghai Auto Show
  • Features
    • Long Read
    • Interview of the Month
    • Focus on Electrification
    • Focus on Mobility
    • Segment Analysis
    • Latest Launches
    • Supplier Spotlight
    • Europe By The Numbers
    • Apple, Nio, other auto newcomers get creative to avoid Tesla's 'production hell'
      How Amazon, Google are transforming the auto industry
      EV-only future looks closer than ever in Europe
      European car retailing poised for shake-up as 'agency' model gains support
    • Renault CEO bets on 'winning horses' for turnaround
      Nvidia CEO says software will soon define the car, drive profit
      Tavares: Keeping PSA, FCA merger on track an 'incredible' achievement
      Renault CEO outlines ambitious revival plan
    • VW brand will accelerate electric vehicle shift
      Spain will use EU funds for EV battery plant with VW's Seat, Iberdrola
      Stellantis will increase pace of EV launches in Europe, U.S.
      Opel Mokka 2020
      Stellantis battery JV seeks contracts with other automakers
    • Honda to sell limited batch of Level 3 self-driving cars
      VW tests self-driving taxis in Germany ahead of 2025 launch
      Skoda connectivity features need to offer more 'must-have' allure
      Luminar-MAIN_i.jpg
      Who's who in the lidar world
    • EVs make huge gains helped by incentives, tougher CO2 rules
      EVs, surging SUVs to hit Europe's biggest segment
      Wagons hold market share, but costly EV shift looms
      Electrification gains speed in Europe's key compact segment
    • Porsche adds Taycan electric wagon, stepping up Tesla challenge
      Hyundai counts on Bayon's 'distinctive' design to make small SUV stand out
      Mercedes positions C-Class as sportier S-Class
      Nissan Qashqai gets better handling thanks to new platform
    • How GKN is transforming to gain from e-powertrain shift
      Marelli CEO expects e-powertrains to provide long-term boost
      Veoneer boss expects to reach key milestone this quarter
      How Faurecia aims to become a hydrogen leader
    • Europe sales by model, January: Porsche, Lamborghini, Volvo defy down market; Toyota Yaris No. 1-seller for the month, VW Golf finishes 4th
      Top 10 sellers by market, January: Skoda Octavia finishes No. 1 or No. 2 in eight markets
      Russia sales fall 4% in January as rebound stalls
      CORRECTED: Turkey sales, January: Ford, Kia, Opel, BMW rise
  • Opinion
    • Blogs
    • Commentary
    • Guest columnists
    • Jaguar Land Rover Gerry McGovern
      Gerry McGovern is right man to steer Jaguar reinvention
      A 'genius idea' gets a second chance in Renault's mobility strategy
      Skoda connectivity features need to offer more 'must-have' allure
      Will an all-electric Jaguar be sold off?
    • Understanding the impact of design on marketing, brand and user experience
      Ex-Aston Martin CEO Palmer calls on UK to intensify battery commitment
      Why Apple must target the $230B luxury car market
      Apple car: Who will build it? Magna Steyr possible candidate
  • Photos
    • Photo Galleries
    • Geneva Photo Gallery
    • Beijing Photo Gallery
    • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
    • Paris Photo Gallery
    • Shanghai Photo Gallery
    • taycan_cross_1.jpg
      view gallery
      7 photos
      Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo
      view gallery
      11 photos
      Volvo C40 Recharge
      view gallery
      11 photos
      Hyundai Bayon
      view gallery
      9 photos
      Honda HR-V Hybrid
    • koenigsegg-gemera-front-quarter-passenger-01.jpg
      view gallery
      14 photos
      Koenigsegg Gemera
      view gallery
      21 photos
      Fiat New 500
      view gallery
      11 photos
      Aston Martin V12 Speedster
      view gallery
      13 photos
      Audi A3 Sportback 2020
    • At the Beijing show, sales rebound and EV boom mix with murky outlook
      3BEIJING-MAIN_i.jpg
      Beijing show to highlight competition for local EV makers
      Beijing auto show delayed due to coronavirus
      Maserati will unveil Ghibli hybrid at Beijing show
    • view gallery
      11 photos
      Mercedes-Benz Vision EQS
      view gallery
      11 photos
      Renault Captur
      view gallery
      5 photos
      Mercedes-Benz AMG GLB 53
      view gallery
      10 photos
      Mercedes-AMG GLE 53 Coupe
    • view gallery
      8 photos
      VinFast Lux SA2.0 SUV
      view gallery
      8 photos
      VinFast Lux A2.0 sedan
      view gallery
      9 photos
      Seat Tarraco
      view gallery
      7 photos
      Toyota Corolla station wagon
    • view gallery
      4 photos
      Nio ET Preview
      view gallery
      7 photos
      Infiniti Qs Inspiration concept
      view gallery
      5 photos
      BMW 3-series LWB
      view gallery
      9 photos
      Mini Clubman
  • Podcasts
  • Car Cutaways
  • EVENTS
    • ANE Congress Conversations
    • ANE Shift
    • ANE Rising Stars
    • ANE Eurostars
    • ANE Leading Women
    • Watch Again
      • July 9: EU green deal in the COVID-19 new normal
      • July 16: Assisted or Autonomous Driving
      • July 23: Challenges in Electrification
      • July 30: The Road Ahead for Europe
    • Meet the 2020 winners
    • Watch the 2020 Rising Stars awards again
  • More
    • Publishing Partners
    • Social Media
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • About Us
    • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
    • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
    • Toyota Europe
    • UFI Filters
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Sales by Market
February 21, 2021 12:00 AM

Why European auto sales may not rebound

Lockdowns, vaccine rollout among obstacles

Peter Sigal
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    3CARNIVAL-MAIN_i.jpg
    BLOOMBERG

    Vehicle sales have plunged in Germany, where showrooms are closed and traditional carnival parades were canceled amid a prolonged lockdown to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

    PARIS — Europe's car sales, slammed by the coronavirus crisis in 2020, were supposed to bounce back this year. But instead, registrations fell by 26 percent in January.

    The declines more closely resembled the dark days of last spring, when factories were closed and Europeans were confined to their homes in an effort to combat the coronavirus. Last month's sales in Spain took a 51 percent hit, Britain's fell 40 percent — to a low last seen in 1970 — and Germany, Europe's biggest market, lost 31 percent.

    At the same time, sales in China rose 30 percent. And demand in the U.S. held up, too, with the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate just under pre-pandemic levels of 17 million.

    So what happened in Europe?

    Initial optimism over COVID-19 vaccines faded as countries descended into infighting over supply and bureaucratic snags. With vaccine rollout slow and new virus variants discovered in Britain and other countries, months-long restrictions on movement and commerce, such as curfews and the closure of large retail spaces — including dealership showrooms — have not been lifted.


    "In this industry, recovering to pre-pandemic levels is not yet a discussion point."
    -- Jonathan Lopez, Independent Commodity Intelligence Services


    Specific conditions in several countries affected results there. Sales in France fell a modest 6 percent as the government continued to prop up the industry with lavish incentives, especially on electric and plug-in hybrid models. On the other hand, Spain's deep hit was compounded by a rare snowstorm that paralyzed much of the country, the government's refusal to make an emissions-tax recalibration revenue-neutral and the end of a "cash for clunkers" scrapping program in December.

    On top of that, the global semiconductor shortage has led to numerous production halts, affecting popular models such as the Volkswagen Golf. Some analysts think Europe will be the hardest-hit region on the production side, partly because it is far from the Asian countries that produce the essential chips.

    LMC Automotive expects a deficit of 200,000 vehicles in the first quarter in Europe. Ultimately, though, automakers including Renault Group, Toyota and Mercedes-Benz as well as analysts say the semiconductor shortage will probably not significantly affect production for the full year.

    Sales will catch up, too, analyst Pete Kelly of LMC Automotive said this month. "If someone can't acquire a car they want now because of a shortage of components, they'll either wait or buy a different one," he said in a webcast.

    Europe's weak sales results are affecting some automakers more than others. Those without a strong presence in China, which has come back strongly from the coronavirus crisis and sustained less damage from the chip shortage, are paying a price for that geographical imbalance.

    They include Renault Group and the European brands of Stellantis such as Fiat and Peugeot, which have almost no market share in China. Renault last week posted an annual loss of $9.7 billion, its largest on record.

    REUTERS

    Renault, led by Luca De Meo, posted a record loss of $9.7 billion in 2020.

    The "footprint factor" may weigh on those automakers' global sales for years, Kelly said. The Chinese market is expected to be more than 400,000 vehicles above 2019 in 2021, while Europe will be 2.3 million below the 2019 level.

    Despite the grim January, analysts still expect European sales to rise this year. The consensus range is between 9 and 12 percent. But that will still be far from their 2019 mark, after a 24 percent drop for the year in 2020.

    That target also is farther off because January sales fell from an already-low monthly base. Many automakers "pushed" higher-emissions models in December 2019 — leading to record registrations for that month — ahead of a Jan. 1 emissions deadline, and January 2020 sales fell by 7.4 percent.

    Another concern: Lockdown restrictions that have closed showrooms in Britain will be in place until some point in March, a month that accounts for 20 percent of all annual sales on the issuance of new license plates.

    In short, as Jonathan Lopez of Independent Commodity Intelligence Services said in a note to clients: "In this industry, recovering to pre-pandemic levels is not yet a discussion point."

    Kelly of LMC sounded a similar note: "This isn't quite going to be a catch-up year."

    EUROPE BY THE NUMBERS NEWSLETTER: Sign up for our monthly newsletter delivering data and commentary on European sales, including sales by model, top models overall, and top models in major markets.
    RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
    UK sales plunge 36% in worst February since 1959
    Recommended for You
    UK sales plunge 36% in worst February since 1959
    UK sales plunge 36% in worst February since 1959
    Spain's February sales fell 38% in 'perfect storm'
    Spain's February sales fell 38% in 'perfect storm'
    German sales plunge 19% in worst February since 2007
    German sales plunge 19% in worst February since 2007
    Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
    Sponsored Content: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
    Sign up for free newsletters
    EMAIL ADDRESS

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Please enter your email address.

    Please verify captcha.

    Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up and get the best of Automotive News Europe delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    Get 24/7 access to in-depth, authoritative coverage of the auto industry from a global team of reporters and editors covering the news that’s vital to your business.

    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    Connect with Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram

    Founded in 1996, Automotive News Europe is the preferred information source for decision-makers and opinion leaders operating in Europe.

    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit MI  48207-2997
    Tel: +1 877-812-1584

    Email Us

    ISSN 2643-6590 (print)
    ISSN 2643-6604 (online)

     

    Resources
    • About us
    • Contact Us
    • 2020 Media Kit
    • Advertise with Us
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Awards
    • Rising Stars
    • Eurostars
    • Leading Women
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Automotive News Europe
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • HOME
      • Latest news
      • Automakers
      • Suppliers
      • New Product
      • Environment/Emissions
      • Sales By Market
      • On The Move
      • Auto Shows
        • Geneva Auto Show
        • Frankfurt Auto Show
        • Paris Auto Show
        • Beijing Auto Show
        • Shanghai Auto Show
    • Features
      • Long Read
      • Interview of the Month
      • Focus on Electrification
      • Focus on Mobility
      • Segment Analysis
      • Latest Launches
      • Supplier Spotlight
      • Europe By The Numbers
    • Opinion
      • Blogs
      • Commentary
      • Guest columnists
    • Photos
      • Photo Galleries
      • Geneva Photo Gallery
      • Beijing Photo Gallery
      • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
      • Paris Photo Gallery
      • Shanghai Photo Gallery
    • Podcasts
    • Car Cutaways
    • EVENTS
      • ANE Congress Conversations
        • Watch Again
          • July 9: EU green deal in the COVID-19 new normal
          • July 16: Assisted or Autonomous Driving
          • July 23: Challenges in Electrification
          • July 30: The Road Ahead for Europe
      • ANE Shift
      • ANE Rising Stars
        • Meet the 2020 winners
        • Watch the 2020 Rising Stars awards again
      • ANE Eurostars
      • ANE Leading Women
    • More
      • Publishing Partners
        • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
        • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
        • Toyota Europe
        • UFI Filters
      • Social Media
        • Facebook
        • Instagram
        • LinkedIn
        • Twitter
      • Contact Us
      • Media Kit
      • About Us