| A sharp drop is expected in the percentage of Europe-built passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with manual transmissions. | ||
| 2005 | 2011 | |
| Manual | 81.40% | 71.70% |
| Automatic | 13.1 | 14.3 |
| Dual clutch | 0.8 | 6.5 |
| Source: CSM Worldwide | ||
Ford is the second major automaker to commit to dual-clutch transmissions. By joining Volkswagen group, Ford gives the technology momentum in Europe.
Ford and transmission partner Getrag of Germany will make 200,000 dual-clutch transmissions a year at a Getrag-Ford factory in Kechnec, Slovakia, predicts Chris Guile, an analyst at CSM Worldwide in London.
A Getrag official said the company would show both a Getrag-Ford dual-clutch system and a separate Getrag dual-clutch unit at the Frankfurt IAA next week. He declined to give further details. A Ford source only would say that Ford would show a "transmission surprise" at the show.
Construction on the partners' joint-venture plant began in July. Production of dual-clutch transmissions for cars will begin in mid-2007, Getrag spokesman Axel Guggenberger said.
New models
Ford and Getrag officials declined to say which models might get the transmissions. CSM's Guile expects them to be on the Ford Mondeo and Galaxy and on most Volvos, from the C30 to the V70 or even the XC90. Long term, CSM forecasts big growth for dual-clutch technology in greater Europe - to 6.5 percent of the forecast 23 million cars and light commercial vehicles produced by 2011. That compares to 0.8 percent of the 19.9 million units built in greater Europe last year.
German transmission supplier ZF Friedrichshafen makes a similar forecast.
ZF will show a dual-clutch prototype at its IAA stand. The ZF transmission, called 7 DCT 50, has seven speeds and is geared for high-performance cars.
The company claims the transmission can handle torque up to 500 newton meters and engine rotations up to 9000rpm. ZF did not say which production vehicle will launch its new transmission.
The forthcoming Bugatti Veyron supercar, styled by VW, will have a dual-clutch transmission designed by British engineering firm Ricardo.
Great potential
"We will initially see them on mid- to large-range vehicles," CSM's Guile said. "Dual clutch is a very promising variant of the automated manual transmission. Most manufacturers are looking at it, apart from people like PSA/Peugeot-Citroen and Renault, who are sticking with AMT because of cost."
Until now, VW has been the driving force behind the growth of dual-clutch transmissions. VW group Chairman Bernd Pischetsrieder enthusiastically endorsed the technology at the group's annual meeting in April. He said 11 percent of Golfs in western Europe come equipped with a dual-clutch transmission.
"If VW's experience is anything to go by," Guile said, "dual clutches could take off quite spectacularly."
US supplier BorgWarner makes many of the key parts in the VW dual clutch, which VW markets as the direct shift gearbox, or DSG.
Dual-clutch works particularly well when mated to diesel engines. Because diesels have a narrow rpm band, there are frequent interruptions in the torque flow. A dual-clutch transmission can be shifted without any break in torque flow.
Dual-clutch transmissions are essentially manual transmissions that offer the driver the option of driving in an automatic mode.
The dual-clutch transmission works like two automatic transmissions side by side. In a six-speed version, one clutch would operate first, third and fifth gear, while the other would operate second, fourth and sixth. Because the transmission uses two clutches with rapid switches from one to the other, there is no lurch between gears.
The technology promises to combine the smooth operation of automatic transmissions with fuel economy equal to or better than manual transmissions. Like continuously variable transmissions and automated manual transmissions, dual clutches offer better fuel economy than automatic transmissions, which lose power and fuel economy in the torque converter.
Paolo Mantelli, sales and marketing director for Graziano, an Italian supplier that makes a dual-clutch system, said: "In auto mode, the brain of the system is driving the car and the shifts are occurring when the torque is just right. So you are shifting gears at exactly the right point in the acceleration process."
