Western automakers are set to lose a fifth of their global market share due to the unstoppable rise of more-affordable, cheaper-to-produce Chinese electric vehicles, according to UBS Group analysts.
Led by BYD, Chinese automakers will almost double their share of the auto market to 33 percent by the end of the decade, UBS analysts including Patrick Hummel and Paul Gong wrote in an Aug. 31 report.
Chinese manufacturers including Nio and Xpeng have ramped up their presence at this week’s IAA Mobility auto show in Munich, and while German powerhouses Mercedes-Benz and BMW unveiled their next-generation EVs, which will not hit the market until 2025.
“The global auto industry is going to undergo seismic changes over the next 10 years or so,” Gong, UBS’s head of China autos research, said in an interview.
The report predicted Western automakers’ global market share will slump to 58 percent from 81 percent by 2030.
“That would be a crisis moment for Western legacy companies,” Gong said.
Tesla’s share is likely to rise to 8 percent from 2 percent.