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December 09, 2020 05:55 AM

Tougher EU pollutant limits could doom non-hybrid cars, automakers fear

Christiaan Hetzner
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    Automakers are worried that the next round of European Union emissions standards will increase compliance costs to the point where it is unprofitable to build cars that do not have a plug-in hybrid or full-electric drivetrain.

    The standards, called Euro 7, will further reduce the maximum allowable emissions of air pollutants such as fine particulates, hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. They are expected to go into effect no earlier than 2025.

    The European Commission will propose legislation in the fourth quarter of next year, based on an impact assessment analysis to be completed in the first half.

    In one example of proposed new limits, nitrogen oxides (NOx) would drop to 30 milligrams per kilometer, an amount that is below the margin of error in today’s portable emissions measuring systems.

    Under the Euro 6d standards applicable starting in January, a vehicle has to emit no more than 80 mg/km both on the test bench and on the road, excluding the PEMS (portable emissions measuring systems) margin of error, currently estimated at as much as 34.4 mg/km.

    EU experts are calling for sharply tightening the parameters of the Real Driving Emissions test, or RDE, which has thus far ignored statistically infrequent “edge case” situations such as extreme temperatures. 

    A senior engineer at Volkswagen said that if Euro 7 proposals from the EU’s Advisory Group on Vehicle Emission Standards go into effect, the automaker could no longer afford to sell a Polo small car for 15,000 euros. 

    “If they extend the boundary conditions of the test to include uphill driving while towing a trailer, then that will be the end of combustion engine cars -- not even a 48-volt mild hybrid could meet such low requirements in every situation,” said the engineer, who did not want to be quoted by name. 

    “We would have to get rid of manuals in order to be able to dictate the precise timing of the gear switch and accelerations would be far more gradual,” the person continued, “so, the car would behave like it was on sleeping tablets. Not only would costs soar, everything that is fun about driving would also disappear.”

    The introduction of Euro 7 is seen as a key determinant behind the intersection of the cost curves for combustion engine and battery-electric vehicles. The regulation would incur compliance costs for new technology like cleaner exhaust gas after-treatment that would make it cheaper to build and sell zero-emissions vehicles once carbon footprints are also factored in, automakers say. Electric cars eliminate all tank-to-wheel emissions, both pollutants and CO2.

    Automakers are already expected to meet a more stringent Euro 6d standard beginning next month that includes a de facto reduction in NOx emissions for diesel cars. The industry had unsuccessfully petitioned to have the introduction date delayed by six months.  

    Industry groups sound alarms

    The industry's lobbying group, ACEA, says that engineering targets would have to be set close to zero to take account of the measuring tolerance. 

    “There is no evidence to show that a NOx limit of 30 mg/km is technically feasible today, especially over all possible types of on-road driving,” ACEA wrote in a statement to Automotive News Europe. “The same limit would also have to be met under a whole range of more extreme driving conditions, including high altitude, high speed, uphill driving, driving with a full load and driving in harsher winter and summer conditions.”

    The Volkswagen engineer said that the proposal, if put into effect, could actually end up increasing harmful emissions. “This would mean those people who for whatever reason cannot make the switch to electric cars end up holding onto their existing cars, rather than replacing them with cleaner ones," he said.

    Groups representing the European transportation sector have voiced concerns about Euro 7, including in a letter sent last month to the European Commission, in which they urged that work on the new standard “is a transparent data‐driven process that allows stakeholders sufficient time to analyze new proposals and collect input for evidence‐based responses.”

    ACEA published a position paper on the Euro 7 standards on Dec. 4, in which it issued a stark warning: “What we have seen so far as proposals for Euro 7 (even with claims they do not represent a final Commission proposal) have not been developed with adequate levels of transparency or debate and would risk industry competitiveness by asking it to bet the house on two massively expensive pathways with limited potential return on investment in internal combustion engines,” the group said, referring to emissions control technologies. 

    “In the end,” the paper said, “customers and operators will pay, if they can and if vehicles are there.”

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