Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Automotive News
  • Automobilwoche
  • Automotive News Canada
  • Automotive News China
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • Newsletters
  • Login
  • HOME
    • Latest news
    • Automakers
    • Suppliers
    • New Product
    • Environment/Emissions
    • Sales By Market
    • On The Move
    • Auto Shows
    • Munich Auto Show
    • Geneva Auto Show
    • Paris Auto Show
    • Beijing Auto Show
    • Shanghai Auto Show
  • Features
    • Long Read
    • Interview of the Month
    • Focus on Electrification
    • Focus on Technology
    • Segment Analysis
    • Cars & Concepts
    • Supplier Spotlight
    • Europe By The Numbers
  • Opinion
    • Blogs
    • Commentary
    • Guest columnists
  • Photos
    • Photo Galleries
    • Geneva Photo Gallery
    • Beijing Photo Gallery
    • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
    • Paris Photo Gallery
    • Shanghai Photo Gallery
  • Podcasts
  • Car Cutaways
  • EVENTS
    • ANE Congress
    • ANE Rising Stars
    • ANE Eurostars
  • More
    • Publishing Partners
    • Social Media
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • About Us
    • Capgemini: All or nothing: Why circular business models require a holistic approach
    • Capgemini: Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
    • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
    • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
    • Capgemini: The circular economy is spurring new thinking on EV batteries
    • Capgemini: Toyota and Capgemini leaders on how OEMs can handle industry changes and succeed
    • HEXAGON: Plugging into data is the only way to make winning EVs
    • TUV Rheinland: Ideas, services and certifications for smart mobility
    • TUV Rheinland: Testing of automated and autonomous vehicles on test tracks
    • Toyota Europe
    • UFI Filters
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. News Analysis
September 21, 2020 09:24 AM

Musk gets chance to deliver on tantalizing 'Battery Day' hints

DANA HULL
Bloomberg
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    MuskLawsuit-MAIN.jpg
    Bloomberg

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

    SAN FRANCISO -- Tesla will provide a highly anticipated technology update on Tuesday when Elon Musk takes center stage at an event the CEO has dropped hints about for months -- and which has helped propel the company’s sky-high valuation.

    The “Battery Day” presentation, which follows the annual shareholders meeting, is expected to showcase innovations designed to keep the company’s lead in electric cars as rivals flood the market with new battery-powered vehicles over the next couple of years.

    If history is any guide, Musk could talk about demand for Tesla’s vehicles at the shareholder meeting, or give updates about new factories in Berlin and Austin, Texas.

    But the first-ever Battery Day, where Tesla will stake out its technology road map, is of keen interest to investors. The tiniest improvement in batteries can have a huge impact, because they are an electric car’s most-expensive part.

    Will Musk and Chief Technology Officer Drew Baglino go super deep with a highly technical presentation on battery chemistry and improvements made since Tesla acquired Maxwell Technologies in 2019?

    Will Musk, who just last year vowed that 2020 would be the year of the robotaxi, promise flying cars?

    Or will he tout improved range for Tesla’s existing vehicles and pledge to add a more budget-friendly car to Tesla’s lineup?

    “A lot of the stuff that Tesla has been working on is about making the battery manufacturing cheaper, not a new recipe for a battery or a completely new revolutionary structure,” said Sam Jaffe, managing director of Cairn ERA in Boulder, Colorado. “But when they institute all of these advances, they will be able to make a $25,000 car.”

    The shareholder meeting gets underway at 4:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday in Fremont, California. Musk likes to keep his fans and rivals guessing, but here are seven educated guesses about what he may unveil.

    1. Cost Parity?

    About a decade ago, the U.S. Department of Energy set a target to bring the cost of battery packs down to $100 per kilowatt-hour from an average of more than $1,000. It predicted when this milestone is reached, electric cars will achieve cost parity with those powered by internal combustion engines, eliminating the EV premium for buyers. Tesla is likely to announce its battery costs have dropped to less than $100 per kilowatt-hour, according to Venkat Viswanathan, a battery expert at Carnegie Mellon University. Tesla’s cost could fall further to $80 per kilowatt-hour by 2025, said James Frith, head of energy storage at BloombergNEF.

    2. Destination density

    One reason Tesla can make cheaper batteries is because it packs more energy in less material and volume. This matters because the size of a vehicle won’t change much, but the amount of energy stored in its batteries goes up -- allowing electric cars to go further on a single charge. The high-end Model S boasts a range of about 400 miles (640 km) per charge, the longest of any car now on the market. Currently, the most advanced batteries found in a Tesla Model 3 have an energy density of about 250 watt-hours per kilogram, according to BloombergNEF’s Frith. By 2025, that could rise to as much as 400 watt-hours per kg, he said.

    3. Electrode innovation

    Batteries have three major components: two electrodes -- anode and cathode -- and an electrolyte that helps shuttle the charge between them. The materials used to make them determine how much energy batteries store and at what cost.

    Tesla’s acquisition of Maxwell Technologies gives it the ability to use dry-electrode technology, said Colin Rusch, a senior analyst at Oppenheimer. That can help lower the amount of energy needed for the manufacturing process. Even if Musk doesn’t mention Maxwell by name, there’s a good chance Tesla has adopted dry-electrode technology in some form.

    Here's an explanation of ‘wet’ vs. dry electrodes: To ready the components of a battery, energy-storing chemicals are mixed in a solvent. That process helps the mixture to have a pancake-mixture type consistency, which can then be coated on aluminum or copper sheets. Once the coating is done, the sheets are passed through hot ovens to dry out the solvent before the electrodes can be packed into a battery. Dry-electrode technology does away with the use of solvents altogether by adding so-called binder chemicals, which when heated become sticky enough to hold the powdered mixture tightly onto the metal sheeting. The upshot is that dry-electrode technology can help lower the amount of energy needed for the manufacturing process and reduce the use of equipment and space on the factory floor -- all ways to shave costs.

    In 2019, Tesla also acquired Hibar Systems, a Canadian equipment manufacturer. There’s a small chance Musk may announce that Tesla is making its own batteries, according to analyst Jeff Osborne of Cowen & Co., in addition to using batteries from Panasonic, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd. and LG Chem. While getting into manufacturing is capital intensive and thus risky, it could pay dividends in the long term.

    4. Cobalt-free?

    Tesla is on a mission to reduce the use of cobalt in its batteries, and Musk might have news to share about progress on that front. The reason: Cobalt is expensive, and most of it comes from mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo that are known to employ children and disregard environmental norms. Panasonic, which supplies NCA (nickel cobalt aluminum) cells to Tesla, has said it plans to commercialize a cobalt-free version in two to three years. Meanwhile, CATL provides Tesla with lower-cost lithium-ion-phosphate batteries that do not contain any cobalt but are less energy-dense than NCA batteries. Musk has said Tesla also is looking for cheaper and greener supplies of nickel.

    5. Spiked with silicon

    Musk has said in the past that Tesla “dopes” anodes that contain graphite with a little bit of silicon. This helps because silicon has a much higher affinity for lithium, so the more silicon there is in the anode, the higher the energy density of the battery. It’s possible Musk will announce Tesla has found a way to increase the amount of silicon loading in graphite anodes, Frith said, but the CEO probably will not announce Tesla has all-silicon anodes, which are still a few years away from commercial use in EVs.

    6. Million-mile battery

    Tesla may follow CATL in announcing it now offers a million-mile battery, or one with as many as 20,000 charge-discharge cycles. Currently Tesla has a 150,000-mile or 8-year warranty, whichever comes first. A million-mile battery probably will not extend the warranty seven-fold, because other components of the car probably will wear out sooner. But it could allow Tesla to make fleet vehicles, such as the long-promised autonomous taxis, that rack up mileage much more quickly than privately owned cars. Cowen’s Osborne also said this could allow Tesla cars to connect with the electric grid and provide services to utilities, such as absorbing excess renewable energy or reducing demands on transmission infrastructure.

    7. Partnership shift?

    Tesla’s most longstanding partner on batteries has been Panasonic. The two companies jointly operate the massive battery plant outside of Reno, Nevada: Panasonic makes the cells, and Tesla strings thousands of cells into the massive battery packs for each car. But Musk has never been keen about depending on one supplier, and Tesla does have smaller-scale agreements with CATL in China’s Fujian province and LG Chem in Seoul. As Tesla builds additional plants in Berlin and Austin, Texas, who will supply the batteries for them? Tesla also sells stationary batteries, which it calls the Megapack, to utility companies that need battery storage for the electric grid.

    Will one supplier emerge as dominant for Tesla’s auto business, while another focuses on the utility market?

    “We expect an update on its relationships with cell partners like Panasonic and CATL,” said Rusch of Oppenheimer. “Given the scale of the opportunity in both vehicle and stationary power, we expect TSLA to continue working closely with a few battery suppliers to scale production with key steps remaining in TSLA facilities.”

    RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
    Renault's new small EV platform cuts weight, diversity and costs
    Recommended for You
    Renault CMF-B EV platform 2023
    Renault's new small EV platform cuts weight, diversity and costs
    CUPRA Formentor VZ5
    Europe's automakers reaped record profits in 2022
    Renault Nissan
    Nissan, Renault confident of finalizing alliance deal soon
    Sign up for free newsletters
    EMAIL ADDRESS

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Please enter your email address.

    Please verify captcha.

    Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up and get the best of Automotive News Europe delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    Get 24/7 access to in-depth, authoritative coverage of the auto industry from a global team of reporters and editors covering the news that’s vital to your business.

    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    Connect with Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram

    Founded in 1996, Automotive News Europe is the preferred information source for decision-makers and opinion leaders operating in Europe.

    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit MI  48207-2997
    Tel: +1 877-812-1584

    Email Us

    ISSN 2643-6590 (print)
    ISSN 2643-6604 (online)

     

    Resources
    • About us
    • Contact Us
    • Advertise with us
    • Advertise with Us
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Awards
    • Rising Stars
    • Eurostars
    • Leading Women
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Automotive News Europe
    Copyright © 1996-2023. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • HOME
      • Latest news
      • Automakers
      • Suppliers
      • New Product
      • Environment/Emissions
      • Sales By Market
      • On The Move
      • Auto Shows
        • Munich Auto Show
        • Geneva Auto Show
        • Paris Auto Show
        • Beijing Auto Show
        • Shanghai Auto Show
    • Features
      • Long Read
      • Interview of the Month
      • Focus on Electrification
      • Focus on Technology
      • Segment Analysis
      • Cars & Concepts
      • Supplier Spotlight
      • Europe By The Numbers
    • Opinion
      • Blogs
      • Commentary
      • Guest columnists
    • Photos
      • Photo Galleries
      • Geneva Photo Gallery
      • Beijing Photo Gallery
      • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
      • Paris Photo Gallery
      • Shanghai Photo Gallery
    • Podcasts
    • Car Cutaways
    • EVENTS
      • ANE Congress
      • ANE Rising Stars
      • ANE Eurostars
    • More
      • Publishing Partners
        • Capgemini: All or nothing: Why circular business models require a holistic approach
        • Capgemini: Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
        • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
        • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
        • Capgemini: The circular economy is spurring new thinking on EV batteries
        • Capgemini: Toyota and Capgemini leaders on how OEMs can handle industry changes and succeed
        • HEXAGON: Plugging into data is the only way to make winning EVs
        • TUV Rheinland: Ideas, services and certifications for smart mobility
        • TUV Rheinland: Testing of automated and autonomous vehicles on test tracks
        • Toyota Europe
        • UFI Filters
      • Social Media
        • Facebook
        • Instagram
        • LinkedIn
        • Twitter
      • Contact Us
      • Media Kit
      • About Us