Toyota, Nissan, Honda are least prepared for zero-emission shift, study shows

Japanese automakers Toyota, Nissan and Honda are the least prepared for a zero-emission vehicle transition compared with their global competitors, according to research released from climate think tank InfluenceMap.

By 2029, just 14 percent of Toyota’s worldwide production is forecast to be full-electric vehicles, rising to 18 percent for Honda and 22 percent for Nissan, according to the study, which is based on an examination of future production data from IHS Markit.

That compares with South Korea’s Hyundai, which is forecast to achieve 27 percent EV production levels globally by 2029 and Ford. and Volkswagen Group, at 36 percent and 43 percent respectively.

Japanese automakers have lagged behind global peers in rolling out electric cars and the country’s EV penetration rate is barely 1 percent.

Honda has budgeted 5 trillion yen ($39 billion) over the next decade to make cleaner cars. Subaru has said it will spend around 250 billion yen on EV battery capacity over the next five years.

Toyota, and the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, which is chaired by Toyota, meanwhile continue to promote hydrogen as one of the key solutions to carbon neutrality, along with EVs.

Across all automakers, hydrogen-powered vehicles are forecast to account for just 0.1 percent of global production by 2029, the study found.

Toyota rolled out the bZ4X, its first mass-produced full-electric car, earlier this month.

“The fact that Toyota and Nissan are the two lowest-scoring companies highlights the strong link between negative climate policy engagement and low levels of electric vehicle production forecasts,” InfluenceMap program manager Ben Youriev said.

“In Toyota’s case, it continues to strongly push combustion-engine powered hybrids -- even in highly developed markets like Japan and the US -- despite recent warnings from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientists that electric vehicles powered by low-emission electricity offer the largest decarbonization potential for land-based transport on a life cycle basis.”