Shortly after taking the most important job in German industry, Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume got some bad news.
A top executive had been dispatched to China to review the competitive landscape and his assessment was grim. At the company’s headquarters in Wolfsburg -- a sprawling factory complex the size of Monaco -- he told his new boss that Europe’s largest automaker was losing the electric vehicle race in its most important market and had no prospect of catching up on its own.
VW had fallen behind in China during the pandemic and by the time the country began to reopen, BYD, Nio and other local brands had doubled the number of plug-in hybrid and full-electric models, with most being cheaper and better than VW’s offerings.
Those new competitors are now turning toward Europe as China’s economy stumbles.
The extra pressure comes as VW and other German manufacturers feel the strain of high energy prices in the fallout from the country’s long reliance on Russia.
Half a world away, Tesla has continued to expand and has laid claim to leadership in automotive innovation, undermining the German giant’s cash cow Audi -- alongside Mercedes-Benz and BMW.
Instead of sleek Audi sedans claiming “Vorsprung durch Technik,” Teslas have become the choice for consumers wanting to show they are on the cutting edge.
The competitive vise squeezing VW from top to bottom and from the U.S. to China might evolve into its biggest crisis since the 2015 diesel-emissions cheating scandal.
The issues could be even harder to overcome and reflect the risks looming over Europe’s largest economy.
“The auto industry is faced with the question of whether and how we will be a global leader in the future,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the IAA Mobility auto show in Munich last week. “For our nation, where the auto industry accounts for a large share of value creation, this is not just an economic issue, but also a question of security.”
The time for VW to get its EV strategy right is running out. An inflection point is coming, and the group risks getting confined to the waning market for combustion-engine cars and lacking the volumes to support its bloated structure.
Its struggles are evident in a market value that is less than one-tenth of Tesla’s even though revenue is more than triple that of its Texas-based rival, and the competitive pressure is evident in the aggressive price war in China, where many brands are selling at a loss.
The company has already spun off minority stakes in sports car maker Porsche and its heavy trucks unit Traton, and calls for a deeper breakup may grow louder if it starts losing market share in Europe, said Daniel Roeska, an analyst with Bernstein.
But Blume and his team are banking on VW’s vast resources paying off as electric vehicles go more mainstream.
“It’s a marathon, and not everyone in a marathon who comes out fastest will be seen first or at all at the finish line,” said Ralf Brandstätter, VW’s China boss.