EU mobility strategy signals deeper CO2 cuts for 2030

The European Union has sent perhaps its strongest signal yet that it intends to tighten 2030 greenhouse gas emissions standards further, increasing the pressure on automakers to electrify their lineups.

The EU released its proposals for a “Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy” on Wednesday, the bloc’s plan to cut transport emissions to reach its overall goals of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050. It includes 82 initiatives for air, land and sea transport.

Those targets “will be reached only by introducing more ambitious policies to reduce transport’s reliance on fossil fuels without delay” the strategy paper says. “The success of the European Green Deal depends on our ability to make the transport system as a whole sustainable.”

Industry groups had a mixed reaction to the strategy, which still needs to be approved by the European Parliament.

“The jury remains out on whether the right balance has been struck between the economy and the environment,” the suppliers’ lobbying group CLEPA said Thursday in a letter signed by president and secretary general Sigrid de Vries. Many suppliers are facing an uncertain future if internal-combustion engines are forced into obsolescence by emissions regulations.

Automakers are already facing a 37.5 percent reduction in 2020-21 fleet emissions of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer in 2030, which translates to an average of about 60 g/km. That figure is attainable only with a much higher percentage of full-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles that are sold now.

But the European Commission that was seated at the end of 2019 under Ursula von der Leyen has proposed the more ambitious overall Green Deal targets, leading to reports that 2030 tailpipe emissions could be cut by 50 percent. Looking further down the road, the EU is seeking to cut transport emission by 90 percent by 2050.

Wednesday’s report signaled that further cuts are almost inevitable.

“The proportion of low- and zero-emissions vehicles in the vehicle fleet is far too low today,” the EU strategy says. “Therefore, in order to meet the targets put forward in the 2030 climate target plan and ensure a clear pathway from 2025 onwards towards zero-emissions mobility, the Commission will propose a revision of the CO2 standards for cars and vans by June 2021.”

The EU’s strategy for the road transport sector includes a number of milestones by 2050, including:

• At least 30 million zero-emissions cars will be in operation on European roads by 2030
• Automated mobility will be deployed at large scale
• Nearly all cars, vans, buses as well as new heavy-duty vehicles will be zero-emissions by 2050

Auto groups said the bloc was moving too fast, and risked incurring unnecessary economic pain.

“Automotive suppliers fully support the Paris agreement and the objective of achieving climate neutrality by 2050,” CLEPA said. But the group also warned that “A strategy built exclusively on battery and fuel cell electric vehicles contradicts the principle of technology openness and will neither achieve carbon neutrality nor support European competitiveness.”

The automakers’ group ACEA was blunter in its criticism, calling the commission’s ambitions “far removed from today’s reality.”

“To meet the Commission’s objective, we would need to see an almost 50-fold increase in zero-emissions cars in circulation on our roads in just 10 years,” the group’s director general Eric-Mark Huitema said in a statement, adding that “not all the right conditions are in place to make such a massive leap.” ACEA called for more investments in electric-vehicle infrastructure including charging stations, more scrapping programs for older cars – the average age of the European fleet is 11 years, the group says – and retraining auto sector workers.

Electrification-based companies were more positive. “We welcome the renewed commitment to electric vehicles, “ said Gilles Moreau, chief innovation officer at Verkor, a start-up planning to build a battery factory in Europe.” With EV and hybrid car sales hitting its record of 18 percent in Europe in July’s sales figures, it has never been as crucial to both regulate the sector and capitalize on the momentum.”