NEW YORK — Declining U.S. consumer sentiment along with uncertainty over vehicle price increases prompted by President Donald Trump’s tariffs means March will represent a high point for sales in 2025, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association’s Chief Economist Patrick Manzi.
The U.S. new-vehicle market capped a solid first quarter with a surge in late March as consumers rushed to make purchases ahead of tariffs that will drive prices higher in coming months while likely limiting supply and selection.
The market grew 4.3 percent to 3.9 million vehicles in the first quarter, driven by sales of hybrids and light trucks. Volume rose 11 percent to 1.61 million vehicles in March, GlobalData reported, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales coming in at 17.8 million.
“That’s going to be a high-water mark going forward here for a while,” Manzi said of the March results, adding he expects consumers will hold off on big-ticket items.
Manzi, speaking at the New York Automotive Forum on April 15, said multiple friends called him seeking advice on whether to buy a car the last weekend of March.
“I told them ‘Probably, yes,’” Manzi said. “Take the certainty now.”
Thomas King, president of data and analytics for J.D. Power, said the rush of consumers purchasing vehicles over the last two-and-a-half weeks has equaled an extra 155,000 retail sales.
Kerrigan Advisors recently represented Atlanta-based Lou Sobh Automotive Group in the sale of Kia of Cerritos, the #2 volume Kia dealership in the US to Trophy Automotive Dealer Group. With this transaction, Kerrigan Advisors has represented five of the top 15 volume Kia stores nationwide, reinforcing the firm’s position as the leading sell-side advisor to high-value dealerships.
“That’s a big lift,” King said. “If that sales pace continues for the month of April, we’ll have an overall industry SAAR north of 18 million. It’s likely going to slow down a bit.”
King expects a hangover in the third quarter as a result of the current sales boom. The industry, he predicts, won’t see major price increases until the end of the second quarter, possibly in May, but most likely not until June.
J.D. Power, King said, expects average new-vehicle prices will increase by about 5 percent by year-end, with a range between 2 and 7 percent, as a result of tariffs.
“What does that do to the sales pace on a retail basis? That would reduce industry sales by year-end by about 8 percent,” King said. “On an annual basis, that’s 1.1 million units.”
