Pickup surge fizzles, forcing Renault, Nissan, Mercedes out; Ford, Toyota dominate niche

The failure of the European pickup market to grow in numbers predicted just four years ago has caused once-bullish automakers to exit the segment, leaving Ford and Toyota as the only brands with decent sales.

The optimism shown in 2017 -- when both Renault and Mercedes-Benz launched pickups pitched at the lifestyle end of the commercial market -- failed to translate to growth in the segment.

Last year pickups accounted for just 6.8 percent of the LCV segment on sales of 116,280, down from 7.9 percent in 2017, according to data from JATO Dynamics. Sales were forecast to top 200,000 in 2018 up from 156,121 in 2017, but only rose to 165,785. They slipped to 159,280 in 2019.

Pickups seemed poised to break out in Europe after growing strongly starting in 2015, but demand failed to match previous heights, such as 2005 when sales hit 173,493 (see chart below).

Renault and Mercedes dropped their pickups last year after failing to generate meaningful sales in the region.

The Renault Alaskan and Mercedes X-Class were built at Nissan's Barcelona factory alongside the closely related Navara as part of a plan to increase the scale of Nissan's European commercial vehicle operations.

Nissan's decision to close the plant at the end of this year will also mean the end of the Navara, Europe’s No. 4-selling pickup in the first quarter of this year according to JATO.

Nissan said in a statement that sales of the model will end in Europe during the course of 2022.

"This reflects the declining pickup segment in Europe and the switch many consumers are taking from pickups to our range of modern and efficient vans," the company said. The automaker said that a decision to import future versions of the Navara from its plants in Thailand and South Africa "remains under study."

Mitsubishi, meanwhile, also could be leaving the segment.

The brand announced in 2020 it would exit Europe but has recently backtracked on that by continuing sales in some markets and saying it would offer models from sister brand Renault that will be rebadged as Mitsubishis starting in 2023.

Mitsubishi wouldn't say whether it would continue to sell the L200, Europe's No. 3-selling pickup in the first quarter this year, but a spokesman did point out that the vehicle does pass the latest Euro 6d-temp emissions regulations.
Mitsubishi briefly sold the L200 to Fiat that rebadged it as the Fullback from 2016 after signing an agreement with the Italian brand, but it was not a success.

Trying to convert Europeans to pickups was a mistake, says Felipe Munoz, global analyst for JATO.

"Very few consider them as a car for driving for leisure," he said. "Europeans prefer the small, cheaper and more practical vans to transport their goods."

The exit of so many manufacturers is good news, however, for Ford, which strongly led the European pickup market with the Ranger in the first quarter of 2020, according to data from JATO Dynamics. The Toyota Hilux was second and the L200 a distant third with 3,522 (see table below).

Ford offers customers in Europe single-cab, extended-cab and double-cab versions of the Ranger. It has also begun selling a chassis cab onto which convertors can add a bespoke rear body.

However, in the first quarter 89 percent of Rangers sold were five-seat, four-door, double-cab models, and of the total, 78 percent were high-spec lifestyle variants such as the Wildtrak and Raptor. All were four-wheel-drive models.

"You would be surprised at the money customers spend. Not just on the vehicle, but what they bolt on afterwards," Hans Schep, Ford's head of commercial vehicles in Europe told Automotive News Europe.

Ford will next year launch a new Ranger that has been developed alongside a new Volkswagen Amarok as part of a wider alliance between the two companies.

The two models will be built at Ford's Silverton plant in South Africa.

VW ended production of the Amarok at its plant in Hanover, Germany, last year after a decade of sluggish sales. Joining forces will give both brands the benefit of a global scale, Schep said.

VW said in March the new Amarok would be clearly different from the Ranger in terms of its design.

The drawback of pickups for manufacturers is that the heavy body-on-frame construction increases CO2 output, which in turn pushes up the average emissions for automakers' light commercial vehicle ranges.

European Union rules require a cut of 15 percent in CO2 emissions from light commercials by 2025 from 2019 levels and a 31 percent reduction by 2030 compared with 2021.

The answer is electrification, but automakers so far have been reluctant to increase the costs and complexity of what is still a relatively simple vehicle.

"In Europe the uptake of electrified pickup trucks remains very low, the lowest compared to any other body style," said David Leah, senior analyst for powertrain at LMC Automotive. "However, it is clear the overall trend in Europe is toward zero-emissions vehicles and pickups will be no exception to this."

Schep confirmed that Ford will address the CO2 issue by selling a plug-in version of the new Ranger "before" 2025. Although Schep declined to specify what kind of a plug-in model the new Ranger would be, LMC expects it to be a plug-in hybrid.

Ford's plans for the Ranger likely indicate that there will be a plug-in version of the new Amarok as well.

Ford's dominance of the European pickup market is related to the strength of pickup sales in the UK, Ford's largest European market. Sales of all pickups in the UK hit 12,899 in the first quarter of the year, triple that of Germany, the second biggest pickup market over the same timeframe with 3,801 (see chart below).

In the UK sales are boosted by a tax break that allows businesses driving pickups that can carry 1 metric ton or more to reclaim the VAT.

Highly specified pickup models such as the Ford Ranger Wildtrak, Toyota Hilux Invincible X and Isuzu D-Max V-Cross are therefore popular with builders and other self-employed tradespeople who can treat them as a car on the weekend.

Even more niche are imports of American full-size pickups, which are much larger than the European models. The Ram 1500, for example, was the No.9-selling pickup at 259 thanks largely to the efforts of importers AEC, which also brings over Dodge vehicles.

Prices rise to 140,000 euros for the Ram 1500 TRX with the 711-hp, 6.2-liter Dodge Hellcat engine. The car's CO2 emissions of 506 grams per kilometer don't count against parent Stellantis' European LCV average, AEC said.

Jeep, meanwhile, now sells the Gladiator pickup in select European markets, including Germany, and managed 282 sales of the model in the first quarter.

The Gladiator for Europe is sold with a 3.0-liter, 194-hp, V-6 diesel and starts at 69,500 euros in Germany, similar to Ford's top-spec Ranger Raptor, which costs 67,931 euros. Both prices include VAT.

Ford, however, has indicated it won't import the F-150 full-size pickup, including the recently launched Lightning electric version.

"I think that's a tough ask. Just the physical size of those products - trying to park it in Sainsburys [supermarket] car parks could be challenge," Ford of Europe President Stuart Rowley told the Financial Times in last month. "I wouldn't see that as a mainstream business."