Volkswagen Group will pass Tesla to become the world’s biggest full-electric vehicle maker in the next five years, as VW's huge investment in electrification starts to pay off, analyst firm LMC said.
Tesla's global EV market share is expected to slip from more than 20 percent in 2020 to about 10 percent in 2025, with VW Group's growing from less than 10 percent to more than 15 percent, Pete Kelly, LMC managing director, said last week in an online forecast event. Ford, Toyota, GM and Mercedes could also see their EV shares surge.
"Tesla's been dominant as a brand in the past five years but clearly that can't last," Kelly said, citing an "onslaught" of new EVs from the VW Group, new offerings from German premium brands and from Toyota, which had backed hybrids and fuel cells but is preparing battery-electric models.
VW launched the first vehicle on its Modular Electric Drive Toolkit (MEB) platform, the ID3 compact-size hatchback, in the second half of 2020. By the end of the year VW had sold more than 54,000 ID3s in Europe, with the model trailing only the Renault Zoe (more than 99,000 sales) and the Tesla Model 3 (more than 85,000 sales) among EVs in the region, according to data from JATO Dynamics.
VW has also launched the ID4 crossover, which as a global model could soon outpace the ID3, and is expected to undercut the Tesla Model Y crossover on price.
By 2030, VW expects to have built a total of 26 million EVs worldwide, with 19 million based on MEB and most of the remaining seven million on the high-performance PPE platform.