PARIS – Under the European Union's proposed new emissions targets, automakers selling vehicles in the trade bloc will need to increase their mix of full-electric vehicles to 55 percent by 2030, according to analysts' forecasts.
That represents a more than 500 percent increase from EVs current market share in western Europe, which is about 9 percent.
The European Commission's "Fit for 55" proposal, issued Wednesday, calls for a 55 percent cut in CO2 from 2021 levels by 2030 -- ahead of an outright ban on sales of internal combustion engines on Jan. 1, 2035. It will likely be the subject of intense negotiations and will require approval of EU member states.
An interim 2025 target of a 15 percent reduction remains in place, setting the stage for mass electrification toward the end of the decade.
Reaching those CO2 targets from the current fleet average of 95 grams per km will require a seismic shift toward full-electric vehicles, analysts say. A 55 percent reduction would mean an average of about 42 g/km of CO2, although each automaker will have its own targets based on 2021 levels.
"This will have massive implications for the electrification strategies of the major OEMs operating on the EU market," Tim Urquhart and Ian Fletcher of IHS Markit wrote in a report on Wednesday.
Electrified vehicles reached an 18.4 percent market share in the first half of 2021 in the 18 western Europe countries, according to Matthias Schmidt of Schmidt Automotive Research, approximately evenly split between full-electric and plug-in hybrids.
The current 2030 target of a 37.5 percent cut from 2021 levels would have shifted that mix to nearly 40 percent full electric, with the plug-in hybrid figure holding steady at 10 percent, IHS Markit said. A 55 percent cut would require 55.3 percent EVs, IHS said.
That still leaves about 45 percent of sales – at 2019 levels, about 7 million vehicles in Europe – with some kind of internal combustion engine. The mix of plug-in hybrids will hold steady at 9.6 percent; full hybrids would decline slightly to 11 percent from 14 percent; and mild hybrids, which offer only modest emissions gains, would decline to 23.4 percent from 34.2 percent in the first half of 2021, IHS said.
Just a tiny fraction, 0.01 percent, would have a non-hybrid combustion drivetrain.