Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Automotive News
  • Automobilwoche
  • Automotive News Canada
  • Automotive News China
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • Newsletters
  • Login
  • HOME
    • Latest news
    • Automakers
    • Suppliers
    • New Product
    • Environment/Emissions
    • Sales By Market
    • On The Move
    • Auto Shows
    • Munich Auto Show
    • Geneva Auto Show
    • Paris Auto Show
    • Beijing Auto Show
    • Shanghai Auto Show
  • Features
    • Long Read
    • Interview of the Month
    • Focus on Electrification
    • Focus on Technology
    • Segment Analysis
    • Cars & Concepts
    • Supplier Spotlight
    • Europe By The Numbers
  • Opinion
    • Blogs
    • Commentary
    • Guest columnists
  • Photos
    • Photo Galleries
    • Geneva Photo Gallery
    • Beijing Photo Gallery
    • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
    • Paris Photo Gallery
    • Shanghai Photo Gallery
  • Podcasts
  • Car Cutaways
  • EVENTS
    • ANE Congress
    • ANE Rising Stars
    • ANE Eurostars
  • More
    • Publishing Partners
    • Social Media
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • About Us
    • Capgemini: All or nothing: Why circular business models require a holistic approach
    • Capgemini: Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
    • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
    • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
    • Capgemini: The circular economy is spurring new thinking on EV batteries
    • Capgemini: Toyota and Capgemini leaders on how OEMs can handle industry changes and succeed
    • HEXAGON: Plugging into data is the only way to make winning EVs
    • TUV Rheinland: Ideas, services and certifications for smart mobility
    • TUV Rheinland: Testing of automated and autonomous vehicles on test tracks
    • Toyota Europe
    • UFI Filters
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Sales by Market
February 02, 2023 10:01 AM

Europe 2023 car sales: Pent-up demand to fuel growth, but recession fears loom

Analysts expect the market to grow by up to 13 percent, but a potential recession could chill demand.

Peter Sigal
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    Jeep dealership France

    A Jeep dealership in France. Manufacturer and dealer registrations could rise in 2023 as competition increases, analyst company Dataforce said.

    PARIS -- The European auto industry suffered through one of its worst years by volume in 2022, but sales should pick up in 2023, according to three forecasters.

    Dataforce said Thursday that passenger-car sales are expected to grow by 13 percent to 12.7 million units in the 30 countries that include the EU, the UK, and Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. The gains are expected from sales to rental companies, a working through of pent-up demand from private buyers, and increased dealer and manufacturer registrations, Dataforce said.

    The European automakers’ lobbying group, ACEA, said Tuesday that passenger-car sales are expected to increase by 5 percent across the 26 EU countries to 9.8 million units.

    Earlier last month, LMC Automotive said sales in Western Europe would increase by 7.8 percent in 2023 to 10.95 million. 

    But both ACEA and Dataforce noted that even with expected increases, sales will remain well below 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Dataforce’s Benjamin Kibies said in a note that 2023 registrations would be 19 percent below 2019, while Sigrid de Vries, the director general of ACEA, said the 2023 total would still be 25 percent less.

    'Crisis situation'

    “We are still in a crisis situation,” de Vries said on Tuesday at an event in Brussels where new ACEA president Luca de Meo of Renault laid out the group’s policy positions.

    European sales were down by 4.1 percent in 2022, ACEA said last month, with sales in the EU countries falling 4.6 percent. Even so, most automakers recorded robust profits, as they prioritized production of high-margin models because of semiconductor shortages.

    Dataforce said that sales would increase in 2023 despite “anything but supportive” economic conditions, including rising energy prices. The largest percentage increase is likely to come from sales to rental companies, which have not yet fully replenished their fleets from 2020, when private travel fell sharply because of pandemic restrictions.

    “Rental companies will seize the opportunity to replenish their fleets as demand from other channels softens,” Dataforce said.

    While automakers could sell nearly any car they could build in the last 18 months because of a severe shortage of semiconductors, competition is expected to heat up in 2023, Dataforce said. The semiconductor shortage is easing as demand for consumer electronics falls, while at the same time Chinese brands such as MG and BYD are making a serious push in Europe.

    Shift to buyer's market

    “The seller’s market is gradually becoming a buyer’s market again,” Dataforce said, leading to increasing self- and dealer registrations that can be discounted.

    But a new round of dealer incentives will have to wait until automakers fulfill a huge backlog of orders – nearly a full year’s worth, Dataforce said. That will support growth in 2023.  

    LMC sounded a similar note, writing that existing demand would prop up sales in the early part of the year, but that an expected first-half slide “into a recessionary period” will be felt by the auto sector. “Households continue to face the squeeze of higher prices and increased financing costs, which will affect their appetite to purchase big-ticket items,” LMC said.

    One sector that will see slower growth is electrified – meaning full-electric and plug-in hybrid – vehicles, Dataforce said. Despite an influx of new models, EV prices remain high and the charging infrastructure continues to lag. Another factor is increased production of less-expensive internal-combustion vehicles to meet pent-up demand.

    EUROPE BY THE NUMBERS NEWSLETTER: Sign up for our monthly newsletter delivering data and commentary on European sales, including sales by model, top models overall, and top models in major markets.
    RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
    Europe sales rise 12% in February as EV demand surges
    Recommended for You
    Cars after production
    Europe sales rise 12% in February as EV demand surges
    Vauxhall Corsa-e 2022
    UK sales rise 26% in February, helped by EV demand
    MG4 orange 2022 during testing
    German sales rise 3% in February as EV demand recovers
    Sign up for free newsletters
    EMAIL ADDRESS

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Please enter your email address.

    Please verify captcha.

    Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up and get the best of Automotive News Europe delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    SUBSCRIBE TODAY

    Get 24/7 access to in-depth, authoritative coverage of the auto industry from a global team of reporters and editors covering the news that’s vital to your business.

    SUBSCRIBE NOW
    Connect with Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram

    Founded in 1996, Automotive News Europe is the preferred information source for decision-makers and opinion leaders operating in Europe.

    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit MI  48207-2997
    Tel: +1 877-812-1584

    Email Us

    ISSN 2643-6590 (print)
    ISSN 2643-6604 (online)

     

    Resources
    • About us
    • Contact Us
    • Advertise with us
    • Advertise with Us
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Awards
    • Rising Stars
    • Eurostars
    • Leading Women
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Automotive News Europe
    Copyright © 1996-2023. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • HOME
      • Latest news
      • Automakers
      • Suppliers
      • New Product
      • Environment/Emissions
      • Sales By Market
      • On The Move
      • Auto Shows
        • Munich Auto Show
        • Geneva Auto Show
        • Paris Auto Show
        • Beijing Auto Show
        • Shanghai Auto Show
    • Features
      • Long Read
      • Interview of the Month
      • Focus on Electrification
      • Focus on Technology
      • Segment Analysis
      • Cars & Concepts
      • Supplier Spotlight
      • Europe By The Numbers
    • Opinion
      • Blogs
      • Commentary
      • Guest columnists
    • Photos
      • Photo Galleries
      • Geneva Photo Gallery
      • Beijing Photo Gallery
      • Frankfurt Photo Gallery
      • Paris Photo Gallery
      • Shanghai Photo Gallery
    • Podcasts
    • Car Cutaways
    • EVENTS
      • ANE Congress
      • ANE Rising Stars
      • ANE Eurostars
    • More
      • Publishing Partners
        • Capgemini: All or nothing: Why circular business models require a holistic approach
        • Capgemini: Invent Head on automotive takeaways from CES 2023
        • Capgemini: Securing the industry's future through a radical rethink
        • Capgemini: Succeeding with the automated driving journey through AI
        • Capgemini: The circular economy is spurring new thinking on EV batteries
        • Capgemini: Toyota and Capgemini leaders on how OEMs can handle industry changes and succeed
        • HEXAGON: Plugging into data is the only way to make winning EVs
        • TUV Rheinland: Ideas, services and certifications for smart mobility
        • TUV Rheinland: Testing of automated and autonomous vehicles on test tracks
        • Toyota Europe
        • UFI Filters
      • Social Media
        • Facebook
        • Instagram
        • LinkedIn
        • Twitter
      • Contact Us
      • Media Kit
      • About Us