How a former BMW exec's advice helped shape an ADAS specialist's focus

After having successfully sold his 4D radar system to the aerospace and defense industries, Barry Lunn and his team caught the attention of automotive executives looking for help making autonomous vehicles a reality.

Lunn had watched the Israeli tech company Mobileye dominate the vision system market by developing technology that could capture vast amounts of data at a very low cost, making it highly adaptable for existing automotive players.

But the turning point for him came during a conversation with a former BMW vice president a few years ago. As he went through his presentation, the VP advised him to reduce his entire PowerPoint presentation to one slide showing the cost.

"That's all the industry cares about," Lunn remembers the executive telling him.

Lunn said this focus on cost is reflected in EU regulations as well, which now mandate that key high-tech safety features must reach a price point low enough to be included in every vehicle.

"Pretty much every production vehicle in the Western world is equipped with radars and cameras, typically with one forward-facing radar for adaptive cruise control and emergency braking, along with cameras for lane assist," he said.

Lunn said reaching low price points is crucial — but achievable — mentioning that Provizio's road map shows high-end sensors costing less than $100, and 360-degree sensors at $50, once production scales to 1 million units.

"We have developed a technology that allows us to do super high resolution, but at a low cost, going from 2D radar sensors to really intelligent 4D radars on every vehicle at the same price point," he said.

Lunn said the mix of "software and silicon" is what allows Provizio to move in this direction.

"Silicon scales, and software doesn't add to your bill of materials cost," he said.

Lunn, who founded Provizio in 2019, is focused on enhancing road safety and improving driving experiences through advanced AI-powered solutions, with core offerings including advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS).

These systems provide real-time alerts and recommendations to drivers, helping them navigate safely and avoid potential hazards.

The company's technology integrates with various vehicle systems to enhance overall safety by detecting and responding to dangerous driving conditions and potential collisions.

Provizio leverages predictive analytics to offer insights into driving conditions, allowing drivers to anticipate and address potential issues before they occur.

From Lunn's perspective, the only path forward to better road safety is by making these technologies available at a cost-effective price point that will allow the sensors and software to become more broadly available.

"You really are looking at about $250,000 worth of sensors on an autonomous vehicle right now," he said.

Unrealistic expectations

"Everyone I knew who really understood the industry would always say that fully autonomous vehicles were just 10 years away — and that in 10 years, they would still be 10 years away," Lunn said. "What's happened in the meantime, though, is we've gone through a credit crunch, which tends to weed out a lot of the overhyped ideas."

Several autonomous vehicle projects and AV-focused companies — especially those whose entire business models were built on the promise that autonomy was imminent — failed.

One of the most prominent was Argo AI, the autonomous vehicle technology company that was backed by Ford and Volkswagen Group, which said in October 2022 it would be shutting down. The catalyst was that automakers shifted their strategies away for self-driving cars.

Ford decided it needed to invest in driver-assistance technology that was more achievable in the near term. Ford's decision led VW to walk away.

"I think many of the big car manufacturers only got involved because of FOMO [fear of missing out]," Lunn said.

He pointed to Waymo as an example of an autonomous success story with a "super" safety record, but the problem remains that the success isn't yet scalable.

"If you look at the gap between the Waymo vehicle and everyday vehicles today, it's just too large in terms of compute and in terms of sensors — it's just not going to become ubiquitous," he said.

That led to Lunn's approach to develop scalable systems at Provizio, confident that advanced autonomy could indeed help improve road safety.

"Nobody was really addressing the cost issue, and we all know margins are slim in the car industry," he said.

Lunn refers to the affordability issue — taking "air defense prices" and bringing them down to the sub-$100 level for sensors — as the "big, boring challenge" Provizio decided to undertake.

He said while it's not a particularly exciting story, the focus on price reduction and the methodologies to achieve it have the potential to solve the automotive industry's safety challenges.

Lunn emphasized that the cost of sensors and software can be reduced to a manageable level. As a result, it will be possible to implement them in every vehicle.

Extra pressure on safety agencies

This, in turn, puts pressure on organizations such NHTSA in the U.S. and EuroNCAP in the EU, which can't realistically mandate $100,000 lidar systems on vehicles — but could push for the inclusion of affordable radars and cameras.

Lunn believes that by getting these sensors onto every vehicle, the required data can begin to be captured to eventually reach a point where machines become verifiably better drivers than humans.

However, without integrating these technologies into everyday vehicles, progress will stall.

"That was kind of my road to Damascus (perspective-changing) moment," Lunn said. "I realized cost is the only thing that's going to save us here, rather than developing some new widget that would solve everything."

Small and agile

Lunn said there was a clear need for Provizio to raise significant funds to be taken seriously by the automotive industry.

He said while staying nimble is important, he emphasized that achieving the necessary scale will come through partnerships, not acquisitions.

"Partnership is our path to scale," he said, explaining that instead of full-on acquisitions, Provizio's model involves several small, strategic partnerships to give others access to its technology.

“The ability to license and build on our technology is key," he said.

He said while Provizio currently doesn't turn a profit, profitability isn't the immediate goal.

"Instead, we are focused on building profitable business units, particularly in the aftermarket and industrial sectors," he said.

Lunn expressed confidence in Provizio's forthcoming radar product, a plug-and-play solution that integrates video and perception capabilities beyond traditional radar systems.

"This will generate cash flow and establish a strong business unit," he said.

He also highlighted the importance of the company's data strategy.

"Just like Mobileye, we are gathering data through our aftermarket products to make our AI better," he said. "That is going to be crucial for our long-term success."

He said the market is tough, but if Provizio times things right and secures the necessary financial firepower, the company can scale and become profitable.

Trojan horse of safety

Lunn said when Provizio approached automakers, it quickly realized that leading with safety statistics — like more than 1 million deaths from road traffic accidents happen globally every year — wasn't effective.

"Instead, we Trojan-horsed the safety aspect by focusing on what automakers truly want: recurring revenue from ADAS features," he said.

They were able to demonstrate that if consumers were willing to pay for upgrades, safety would become the natural by-product of widespread adoption.

"If you click your fingers, and every vehicle had this technology," Lunn said, “there would not be any crashes, so there would be no road deaths."