Wagons forecast to struggle but still survive on strong German, Swedish, Czech demand

The station wagon -- a staple on European roads since the 1950s -- is facing a steady decline as automakers abandon the segment in favor of vehicles with more global appeal such as SUVs and crossovers.

Wagons were previously popular, particularly with growing families, because they offered more luggage room than sedans. Today, however, that need for space is being satisfied by SUVs and crossovers, which last year captured 34 percent of the European market compared with 11 percent for wagons, according to sales data from JATO Dynamics.

The market will shrink to 1.5 million by 2025 from 1.7 million this year and almost 2 million in 2016, analyst firm LMC Automotive predicts. Sales were down 10 percent to 863,626 in the first half.

Automakers with long histories of building wagons such as Citroen, Nissan, Alfa Romeo and Honda no longer offer them in Europe. Toyota is down to one wagon, while Renault, Peugeot and Ford only have two apiece. Ford could drop to one if it decides to ax its Mondeo midsize wagon. Renault had three but has said it will not build a wagon variant of its new Clio small car.

"To be honest, we thought about replacing the Clio station wagon, but in the end we decided not to do so," said Olivier Brosse, who is Renault program director for small cars.

He said many Clio wagon customers would opt for the new Captur small SUV, which has 81 liters more trunk space than the previous generation.

A big problem for wagons is that they are widespread in Europe but nearly non-existent elsewhere. While the body style was once popular in the U.S., wagons have been all but killed there, first by the rise of the minivan and then surging demand for SUVs and pickups. Earlier this year Volkswagen said it would pull its last two wagons from the U.S. by year-end.

Europe accounted for 72 percent of global wagon sales in 2017, JATO data shows. "Station wagons are only popular in Europe, and this could be a good reason to stop producing them in these challenging times," JATO global analyst Felipe Munoz said.

Even some European markets are turning their backs on wagons. In Italy, for example, the body style accounted for 15 percent of sales in 1999, but in the first half of this year they accounted for 5 percent.
In the UK, wagons also accounted for 5 percent of first-half sales while in France they stood at just 4 percent.

What is likely to save the wagon from extinction is continued strong demand from northern and eastern European countries.

Wagons accounted for 17 percent of sales in Germany, Europe's biggest market, in the first six months while in Sweden they had a 31 percent share. "Germany is a big wagon market and it's not going away," Pete Kelly, managing director of LMC Automotive, said.

Customers there and in other strong wagon markets such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and the Czech Republic remain committed to the body style.

"Wagons aren't on the way out totally because there's a diehard group of buyers who identify with them completely," Kelly said. For them the wagons are superior to SUVs for two main reasons -- their long, sweeping designs and larger rear loading areas. "You might see one or two drop out, but for manufacturers heavily dependent on Europe and Germany, wagons are best," he said.

Skoda's strength in Germany and its Czech home market were key to the Octavia Combi compact finishing the first half as Europe's No. 1-selling wagon by a wide margin. It is so popular that Skoda built almost twice as many wagons compared with the Octavia hatchback variant in Europe last year, according to company figures.

The Octavia Combi captured almost a quarter of the compact wagon segment, which was Europe's biggest in terms of sales. Octavia wagon sales dipped just 2 percent in the first half despite a new model arriving early next year.
The second biggest wagon segment is the midsize class, which was topped by the Volkswagen Passat.

Premium automakers remain committed to wagons after a relatively late conversion to the segment in the 1980s.

Of the three German premium brands, Audi was the first-half sales leader with the A4 Avant at No. 2 in the midsize wagon category and the A6 Avant finishing at No. 1 in the large segment ahead of BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

The wagon might have been knocked by the trend for SUVs but it has also capitalized on it too in the form of raised versions that borrow some of the same rugged off-roading appeal.

The Cross Country version of Volvo's V60 accounted for a third of the midsize wagon's global sales last year, the company said. Volvo expects the recently launched new V60 Cross Country to capture a similar share or higher.

Automakers have future-proofed the wagon to some extent with recent additions of plug-in hybrid drivetrains. The latest is the Skoda Superb, which adds the IV plug-in hybrid variant to its lineup starting in early 2020 to rival the VW Passat GTE and Peugeot 508 SW PHEV in the midsize wagon segment.

Among premium automakers, the plug-in hybrid wagon variants include the Volvo V60 and V90 as well as the Mercedes C350e and E300de. So far, no BMW or Audi wagons have been offered with the technology, but they are expected.

The wagon could come back into fashion if SUVs are forced to drop their height to make them more aerodynamic as the pressure rises to electrify powertrains. Until then, the wagon market will continue to shrink into its northern European heartland.