ZF boss does not expect robotaxis before 2030

FRANKFURT -- There is still a "tremendous" amount of engineering work to be done before the first robotaxis appear on public roads, ZF Friedrichshafen CEO Wolf-Henning Scheider said, prompting his company to take a step-by-step approach to autonomous driving.

"I'm a little bit more skeptical than some announcements that we've heard," Scheider said at the Frankfurt auto show. "From our point of view, it will take several more years."

The CEO said ZF would introduce its first autonomous shuttles in 2021, on a one-way closed circuit at the Brussels airport.

ZF will deploying the shuttles after taking a majority stake this spring in 2getthere, a Dutch company that makes autonomous vehicles, including the automated guided vehicles, or AGVs, that are seen in many factories.

In a similar project, ZF is working with e.GO, a shuttle maker, and the French company Transdev on autonomous people movers. ZF is supplying electric drive systems, steering systems and its ProAI central computer.

"Step by step, we will evolve the technology into fully autonomous systems in urban areas," Scheider said, "but I wouldn't expect it before 2030."

The executive said that he saw a positive effect to a slower approach: "People can get used to the shuttles and feel comfortable." "Today there's still a lot of hesitation about using a driverless vehicle."

Other automotive executives have recently expressed skepticism about the speed of adopting self-driving cars, citing cost, complexity and the need to prove their safety to a skeptical public.

Ford's Jim Hackett said this spring that "we overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles," and companies such as Waymo and Uber have also tempered expectations.
Many automakers and suppliers are now sounding a similar note to ZF: Closed-circuit shuttles will be the only public application of the technology in the next few years.

ZF cut its full year revenue forecast in August to 36 billion euros to 37 billion euros from 37 billion to 38 billion euros and adjusted its earnings before taxes and interest (EBIT) margin to 4 percent to 5 percent, from 5 percent to 5.5 percent.

Scheider said that ZF would have to adjust its manufacturing footprint as global automotive production contracts. "With the markets in China at minus 13 percent and Europe at minus 4 percent, even if we have market share increases we'll feel part of this volume decrease," he said.

"We have enough flexibility measures in Europe to adapt," he said, which were negotiated with unions during the 2008 financial crisis.

"So far they're giving us enough flexibility, but we're looking ahead to some uncertainties" including the impact of Brexit and the result of trade talks between the U.S. and China.

Scheider said he expected the next two years to be "difficult" in Europe, which could hurt Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers, especially those that were heavily weighted toward internal combustion components rather than electrification.

Asked if he saw a future for diesel engines, Scheider said the concept was "perfect" but that public opinion was hard to predict.

"The newest vehicles on the market have such low nitrogen oxide emission that you can hardly measure them anymore," he said, "and with CO2 reduction, it's a perfect powertrain."

"We've seen a rebound in the German market," he added. "It's coming back a little bit as people see the advantage of lower fuel consumption and good emissions."

ZF ranks No. 5 on the Automotive News Europe list of the top 100 global suppliers, with worldwide sales to automakers of $36.9 billion in 2018.